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RealMoney.com: Barry Ritholtz
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Ignore the Cheerleader-in-Chief
Page 2



Fast forward to summer 2003. The newest Fed concern was deflation. For a while the central bank seemed to have successfully jawboned the Treasury market into believing that rates would stay low for a long, long time. Greenspan even suggested that the Fed stood ready to make open market purchases to ensure rates stayed low.

As bond buyers then discovered to their chagrin, this statement turned out to be false. The fixed-income crowd became Wile E. Coyote to Greenspan's Road Runner. The Fed chief painted a tunnel entrance on a wall, and the bond boys ran face first into it. Forgive the equity crowd their snickering, as they had already paid their tuition to learn that costly lesson. Hey, it's the Fed chief's prerogative to change his mind ... but in doing so, he caused massive dislocation in one of the world's largest capital markets.

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It now seems to be a regular cycle. Today, we heard the Fed chief's pearls of wisdom on oil and commodities. One of the phrases that caught my ear was this one: "Obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher." But couldn't Greenspan have said the very same thing when oil was at $40? How about $50? I wonder if he will be saying something similar if and when oil hits $60?

Pardon my cynicism, but I am grabbing my hat and leaving before the curtain falls. I know how this will turn out: The cheerleader-in-chief will cost the unwary a healthy chunk of change. Quite frankly, anyone who buys or sells anything based on Greenie's prognostications is very likely to get what he deserves.

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At the time of publication, Ritholtz was long BP, ConocoPhillips and Interoil, although holdings can change at any time.

Barry Ritholtz is chief market strategist for Maxim Group, where his research and market analysis are used by the firm's portfolio managers and clients in the U.S., Europe and Japan. He also publishes The Big Picture, his macro perspectives on the economy and geopolitics, entertainment and technology industries. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Ritholtz appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to barry.ritholtz@thestreet.com.

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