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Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take): A month ago, the stock tested $40.85 and has been moving sideways to down since then. The downside is 25% over the next three years. IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take): Big Blue helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach its all-time high on Friday with a multiyear high of its own at $95.80, which is above my semiannual pivot at $94.55. I see the risk of a 20% share-price decline over the next three years. Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take): It reached $22.50 a month ago and has been a drag on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, ever since. Intel is 14.6% undervalued, but with declining momentum, it is not likely to achieve its fair value. It's more likely to decline 20% over the next three years. Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Like IBM, Microsoft helped the Dow to its all-time high on Friday. Its high at $30.23 is just 3 cents above a ceiling set between April 2002 and November 2004. Microsoft has a downside risk of 30% over the next three years. Motorola (MOT - commentary - Cramer's Take): This stock illustrates just how fast a big-cap tech stock can decline by more than 20%. It peaked at $26.30 on Oct. 13 and traded as low as $20.53, down 21.9% in just two months. Motorola also illustrates how its annual pivots influence a stock, once they are tested. Its annual pivots are $20.96 and $23.10 -- powerful magnets for all of 2006. It still has another 15% of downside risk over the next three years. Nokia (NOK - commentary - Cramer's Take): This name saw a 22.3% correction in 2006, from its April 21 high of $23.47 to its July 17 low of $18.23. Nokia has 20% of downside risk over the next three years.
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At time of publication, Suttmeier had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist for RightSide.com, where he writes the Small Stocks and Sector Report. Early in his career, he became the first long bond trader for Bache and later began the government bond department at LF Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the U.S. capital markets. He has also been the U.S. Treasury strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. He appreciates your feedback; click here to email him.
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