Sometimes, Good News Is Actually Good News

Did I miss my chance? That's what I left California thinking about, even though the predictions are for much more dire price cuts in homes out there.

Or how about the astounding lack of bankruptcies? I am sure after Christmas that some will fold, but what happens if it turns out that we have seen a corner turned by the sense that Obama is a grownup who is going to give us another chance and the last stages of the Bush administration don't feel so bumbling after all?

What happens if some of the moves work? If mortgage rates come down on top of the 30% to 50% declines in home prices in areas like the hard-hit one I saw last week?

I believe we are going to have to start looking for positive signs, and perhaps -- shudder -- some signs of actual improvement, now that Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual, Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take), AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take), Lehman, Bear and Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) are taken care of. The rally in Goldman (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (MS - commentary - Cramer's Take) last week seems more of a beginning than an end. The notion that Morgan Stanley is going to become more of a consumer banker made the Wells (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Wachovia, Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Countrywide and Merrill, and JPMorgan/Washington Mutual trades seem like, alas, moves with foresight, as there isn't a lot of excess deposits flying around, unless you want to buy Downey (DSL - commentary - Cramer's Take), which had a branch next to me that had the "closed until further notice" sign.

Now, if unemployment spikes, which means that foreclosures have spilled over to the destruction of the broader economy, if the Baltic Freight Index doesn't stabilize, and if the Europeans don't join in the rate-cutting, then we will revisit the lows. But at this point when you look at the components of the Dow, whether it be the oils or the telephones or the drugs or the retailers and restaurants or the banks and the higher-yielding industrials (GE (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take), Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Du Pont (DD - commentary - Cramer's Take)) it just doesn't seem like there is enough negative news to rock the markets.

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