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RealMoney.com: Banking
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Bank Earnings Face Stress Test
Page 2



I've profiled some key banks today that are among the top 40 in terms of total assets. Those assets range from $22.4 billion for Colonial Bank (CNB - commentary - Cramer's Take) to $400.8 billion for Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take). In most cases, the larger regional banks have a better handle on their real estate loan portfolio than the smaller, more community-oriented institutions.

According to FDIC-compiled risk-based ratios, the first proposed threshold stated that an institution would be considered above risk guidelines if loans for residential construction and development were 100% or more of total capital. In the table below, this figure is expressed as CD Loans, or the ratio of residential loans to risk capital.

If loans for residential and commercial activities, including those secured by multifamily and nonfarm nonresidential property but excluding loans secured by owner-occupied properties, were 300% or more of total capital, then the institution would have a CRE concentration above risk guidelines. In the table below, this figure is expressed as CRE Loans.


Bank Earnings 12-Jan CD CRE Total % Fair Value Risky
Company / Symbol Price Loans Loans Loans Funded Value Levels Pivots Levels
BB&T Corp (BBT)$42.62175%312%342%85%$42.7640.71 Q / 40.59 S43.75 S60.10 A
Commerce Bk (CBH)$34.7239%202%229%60%$30.3130.59 M36.34 Q / 36.90 S38.05 A / 40.43 S
Colonial Bank (CNB)$25.98301%505%656%67%$25.4423.78 A26.65 Q / 24.96 S31.09 S
Regions Bank (RF)$37.06129%248%343%58%$34.7925.80 A / 24.57 A33.62 Q / 37.55 SNone
Suntrust Bank (STI)$82.8679%151%194%64%$76.2077.61 Q / 72.80 S81.35 M89.72 S
Wells Fargo (WFC)$35.5138%107%194%45%$34.7233.15 A36.66 A39.23 S
Wash Mutual (WM)$45.0411%129%129%100%$41.6842.03 A43.40 Q / 45.59 S49.25 A / 50.60 S
Source: RightSide.com

Now, let's take a closer look at the names.

  • BB&T Corp. (BBT - commentary - Cramer's Take): It will report quarterly results before the open on Thursday, and it's expected to post earnings of 78 cents per share. With $88.8 billion in assets, BB&T is overexposed to real estate loans. Loans are 85% funded, well above the 60% considered "healthy," and that reflects the possibility that some loans are at risk of becoming noncurrent. The key levels to hold on weakness are my quarterly and semiannual value levels at $40.71 and $40.59, respectively. BB&T shares have been sliding recently, down from a trading high of $44.74 on Dec. 27. A break of the 200-day simple moving average at $42.58 would be a sign that the financial stress is becoming heavier.

  • Commerce Bank (CBH - commentary - Cramer's Take): It reported results this morning, meeting the consensus EPS estimate of 40 cents. With $39.5 billion in assets, it is not overexposed to real estate loans. Loan exposures are below guidelines and are a healthy 60% funded. However, the stock is still trading above its fair value at $30.31. The key level to hold on weakness is my monthly value level at $30.59. Commerce Bank shares peaked at $41.20 on May 5, and they're losing about 7% today on news that the company is being probed by regulators.

  • Colonial Bank (CNB - commentary - Cramer's Take): It will issue its quarterly report before the open on Wednesday, and Wall Street is looking for EPS of 43 cents. This bank has $22.4 billion in assets and extreme overexposure to real estate loans: 301% vs. 100% for CD loans, 505% vs. 300% for CRE loans, and 656% if all loans were fully funded. Colonial Bank trades above fair value of $25.44, and the key level to hold on weakness is my annual value level at $23.78. Shares spiked to $26.80 on Jan. 4 but since then have been losing luster. I'd put this name on my list of 50 "domino banks": ripe for a fall given an increase in noncurrent loans.

  • Regions Financial (RF - commentary - Cramer's Take): It will report quarterly results on Friday, and EPS of 72 cents are expected. With $82.5 billion in assets, the bank is not overexposed to real estate loans. Loan exposures are below guidelines and are a healthy 58% funded. The stock trades above fair value of $34.79, and the key level to hold is my quarterly pivot at $33.62. Regions has been moving sideways to down since testing $39.15 on Oct. 13, and it is approaching its 200-day simple moving average at $36.13.

  • SunTrust (STI - commentary - Cramer's Take): It will also report before the open on Friday, and EPS is expected to come in at $1.46. With $182.5 billion in assets, the bank is not overexposed to real estate loans. Loan exposures are below guidelines and are a healthy 64% funded. The stock trades above fair value of $76.20, and the key level to hold is my quarterly value level at $77.61. It has been moving sideways between $82.05 and $85.64 since Dec. 28.

  • Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take): This morning, the company met quarterly earnings expectations of 64 cents a share. With $400.8 billion in assets, it is not overexposed to real estate loans. Loan exposures are below guidelines and are a conservative 45% funded. Shares trade above fair value of $34.72, and the key level to hold is my annual value level at $33.15. The stock popped today on strong loan growth but should continue to trade between $36.99, hit on Oct. 20, and the 200-day simple moving average at $34.84.

  • Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take): It will report its results after the close Wednesday, and the consensus EPS estimate is 88 cents. The bank has $347.6 billion in assets and is not overexposed to real estate loans. All real estate loans are fully funded. The stock trades above fair value of $41.68, and the key level to hold is my annual value level at $42.03.





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At time of publication, Suttmeier had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist for RightSide.com, where he writes the Small Stocks and Sector Report. Early in his career, he became the first long bond trader for Bache and later began the government bond department at LF Rothschild. Suttmeier went on to form Global Market Consultants as an independent third-party research provider, producing reports covering the U.S. capital markets. He has also been the U.S. Treasury strategist for Smith Barney and chief financial strategist for William R. Hough. Suttmeier holds a bachelor's degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's degree from Polytechnic University. He appreciates your feedback; click here to email him.

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