As it turns out, just a day after my thoughts on population migration and shifts was published on RealMoney Silver, the U.S. Census Bureau released its list of 25 U.S. cities with the greatest percentage population growth from July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008. The table from the U.S. Census Bureau is reproduced below.
U.S. Census Bureau
In my original article, I omitted the great state of Colorado as being a destination for individuals seeking a permanent change of residence. This was an oversight, and I would add that state to my prior list.
I want to make a few observations from the data in the table. Growth in New Orleans seems to be a return of residents who were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Seven of the top 25 growth cities are in Texas; four are in North Carolina; three each are from California and Colorado. I'm going to venture a guess and say that a year from now, California cities will diminish or might disappear from this list and we will see more from the Tar Heel and Centennial States. Finally, it comes as no surprise that there are no Rust Belt states on the list.
As I have discussed on this site before, subtle short-term changes are hard to recognize, but long-term change is quite evident. So while population shifts resulting from the recent recession, financial crisis and state budgets will be slow and sluggish, I believe that investment theories can be derived from looking at the longer-term trends.
Know what you own: Shifts in population will have an impact on homebuilder stocks, including Centex (CTX), Hovnanian (HOV), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), Pulte Homes (PHM), D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH).
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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At the time of publication, Rothbort had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.
Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele. He also is the founder and manager of the social networking educational Web site TheFinanceProfessor.com.
Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.
Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Term Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.
For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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