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RealMoney.com: Market Analysis
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Europe Continues Its Upside Streak

By Marco Hague
RealMoney Contributor

11/10/2009 7:31 AM EST
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Equity futures: Dow +75.00. S&P +9.00. Nasdaq +12.50. Japanese Nikkei +40.00. German Dax +12.00.

European shares started the Tuesday trading session with very thin momentum, with most indices posting small gains. The European futures markets pointed to a slightly negative start in European trade but turned green shortly after the opening bell.

Most European stocks are posting small gains, sending the regional markets higher for a fifth consecutive day. Since the trading session started, Spain's IBEX has added 0.40%, while Italy's MIB has advanced 0.30%. However, some equity markets also declined in Tuesday trade, such as the Swiss stock market, which has lost 0.10% and the Nordic markets, which lost between 0.15% and 0.30%.

S&P futures are higher but still below the 1098 critical resistance area. Our blue wave 2) top still may be the case so long as the 1098 top holds. Any break of this top will require a reworked wave count, as wave 2) must not make a retracement of more than 100% of the wave 1) distance.

If new highs hit over the coming sessions, we will look for an impulsive bullish wave count, with new targets around the 1115 area.


Basic materials and the telecommunication sectors dragged the market lower around the opening bell but the basic materials market turned around as gold bounced from the $1,100 support area.

In the telecommunication sector, most of the declines came after Vodafone (VOD - commentary - Trade Now), the largest mobile company in the world, posted its third-quarter results. Even though the report results were in line with most analysts' forecasts, Vodafone's European profits came in very weak, triggering a selloff in the telecommunication sector. Right now, Vodafone is down 2.5%, while France Telecom fell 0.60%.

Negative momentum also came from the travel and leisure companies, but this particular sector is too small to affect the market's overall momentum. To the upside, bank, insurance and real estate companies advanced on average between 0.3% and 0.5%

During the European session, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report came in much weaker than expected for the month of November. The ZEW report hit the wires at 51.1, down from 56.0 in October, on concerns about the country's consumer market. Until now, this report had little effect in the financial market.


Crude oil was recently trading at $79.05 a barrel, lower by 30 cents. Oil prices have been trapped between the $81.95 highs and $76.47 support, for the last two weeks, which suggests that the wave IV) structure is a little more complex than first thought. As such, the market may be forming a triangle formation, where the $76.47 support area must hold.

Currently, wave d leg of a triangle structure is probably in process with wave e yet to come, where the prices must not fall below the $76.47 support zone. A break of the $81.95 highs will put a wave V) target around $84 in play.


Gold was recently trading higher by $1.00 to $1101.40, having recently hit the $1,110 top, exactly between the Fibonacci resistance levels where the small pullback appeared. The top of wave V of a larger wave 5) of an extended black wave III (daily chart) may already be in place.

Traders need to be very patient because the market may trade still higher as long the $1,083 support holds. Once the $1,083 support is taken out, the near-term short trade should be in play.








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At the time of publication, Hague had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Marco Hague is one of the founders and principals of The London Forex Broadsheet (commonly known as TheLFB), a global forex trader portal with headquarters in the U.S. Hague began his career with the Bank of England dealing with foreign exchange control, and he has been trading for the last three decades. He has been involved with institutional risk asset ratio analysis and the implementation and maintenance of institutional trade desks globally.



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