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RealMoney.com: Market Analysis
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Equities Lower In European Malaise

By Marco Hague
RealMoney Contributor

11/5/2009 8:00 AM EST
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Equity futures: Dow -9.00. S&P 500 -1.30. Nasdaq -5.75. Japanese Nikkei -2.00. German Dax -15.00.

The regional European indices lost an average 0.50% in Thursday morning trade, reflecting the market's uncertainty ahead of important interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. In addition, the selloff seen during the last few minutes of the U.S. cash session hurt the global equity markets, sending both Asian and European shares lower.

Every stock market in Europe is trading in the red, with the emerging and the developed equity markets moving hand in hand. The German Dax and the U.K. FTSE have shed around 0.50%, while the Nordic markets, as tracked by the DJ STOXX Nordic TMI, fell 0.70%. At the same time, the DJ STOXX Eastern European 300 index lost 0.30%.

S&P futures traded higher yesterday in perfect technical fashion, with the recent turning point between the 1055-1065 areas, as discussed. The red wave IV we were waiting on looks complete now and suggests a move lower over the next few sessions. As such, an expected wave V may fall down to the 1011 target zone while the market trades below the 1069.75 resistance area. Wave V confirmation comes in a 1025 breakout.


The heavyweights -- financial and basic resources companies -- again acted as a drag on the European equity markets, with both sectors losing around 1%. The financial sector declined after Zurich Financial Services missed analysts' estimations. The raw materials companies, especially miners, declined after Vedanta Resources also posted lower third-quarter profits. Moreover, the selling in the raw materials sector was amplified by the declining metal prices.

The market is keying on the BoE and for the ECB interest rate decisions, which took place at 7:00 and 7:45 a.m. EST respectively. Soon afterward, investors will shift their attention to the ECB press conference, which historically has created volatility in the market, especially in the foreign exchange arena. The expectations were relatively low for the ECB, which as expected retained the same signal as in the prior few meetings. However, the BoE increased the size of the asset buying program by 25 billion pounds -- bringing the total program to 200 billion pounds -- something that may already be factored in to the market's price.

At the same time as the ECB press conference, the Canadian building permits and the U.S. unemployment claims will also hit the newswires.


Crude oil was recently trading at $80.00 a barrel, lower by 40 cents. The market is still pushing oil prices higher, and our wave V) of larger wave V looks to be developing. A break of the $81.95 wave III) top may appear over the next few sessions, which should be the key for a move near to the $84 target area. The current wave count stays valid so long as the market trades above the $76.47, wave IV) support.


Gold was recently trading higher by $2.40 to $1,089.70. On the four-hour chart, the blue wave III may already be completed around the $1,095 area as the market trades slowly lower. As such, traders may look for a wave IV corrective pullback before another push higher of the final wave 5) appears. Target of this move (blue wave V) will be somewhere around $1,010.








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Marco Hague is one of the founders and principals of The London Forex Broadsheet (commonly known as TheLFB), a global forex trader portal with headquarters in the U.S. Hague began his career with the Bank of England dealing with foreign exchange control, and he has been trading for the last three decades. He has been involved with institutional risk asset ratio analysis and the implementation and maintenance of institutional trade desks globally.


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