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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Banks Are the Front Runners

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/11/2009 4:22 PM EST
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Why shouldn't the banks be the next group to run? In a video this morning with Alix Steel, I suggested that the banks would be the sector most likely poised for another run.

 
Some of my belief comes from my view that housing has stabilized and might be going up. Some of it is that the net interest margins are just fine and going to be helpful, though not blow-away.

Some of it, however, is my belief that we are going to begin to see little to no competition among banks, courtesy of the incredible consolidation of large banks, coupled with the hobbled nature of small ones.

There's a reason why this nation had held the line on no bank being bigger than 10% of the retail banking market: the community banks were so powerful in Washington, that they knew that if banks were able to get that kind of national critical mass, the locals couldn't compete.

Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Trade Now) and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now) each now have more than 20% of the retail market. That means they can blanket the country in advertising, dominate big markets and, yes, charge more than they would be able to otherwise. You are going to see what happens when the incredibly competitive market of banking services becomes a benign oligopoly and all of the fees associated with banking can start creeping higher.

I point this out because so many people believe there is no normalized earnings power. I think that will prove to be the biggest canard of the bears. The sources of earnings for banks will switch to streams that are regular and predictable and less dependent on interest rates than ever before.

That's why I think BAC and WFC are so attractive. People just don't get that the lack of competition will produce tremendous leverage and huge fees. That's what makes these companies so exciting once their balance sheets are cleaned up, and that could be done tomorrow if these companies would just stop being so prideful and issue the darned equity already.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long WFC and BAC.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my ActionAlertsPlus.com service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 7 p.m. Barnes & Noble, Manhattan (33 East 17th St.)





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At the time of publication, Cramer was long WFC and BAC.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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