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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Use Sirius Bonds to Play the Other Side

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/10/2009 10:59 AM EST
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If you like Sirius (SIRI - commentary - Trade Now), do not play the common stock. The bonds are the best bet. Not that long ago, in the summer, Barclays put out a terrific piece about the 3.25% Sirius converts due 2011. These converts, which currently sell at 88, could be a great play on any turn, because they will get paid off at a nice gain.

 
Barclays likes it because there is no other Sirius debt due ahead of it, and if it gets in trouble, Liberty Media (LINTA - commentary - Trade Now), the new investor that injected capital, will make that debt good, because bankruptcy wrecks the principal asset that SIRI brings to the table: its gigantic operating loss.

I am also drawn to the 9.625% notes that mature in 2013, a piece of paper that has zoomed in value since the decent quarter Sirius posted, and which trades more actively than all other bonds. These trade at 94 and yield 11.65%.

Why not the common? For many of the reasons detailed here by others: massive dilution, unlikely to produce an actual profit and more likely to do nothing as the bonds pay off no matter what happens to the operation. I also believe that if there is any upside to the common, it will be taken by Liberty, which, historically, is a very greedy partner.

Random musings: I see Ralph Lauren Polo (RL - commentary - Trade Now) getting the nod from Goldman Sachs. This, again, is in keeping with the "high-end is back" thesis I have been articulating. ... Will someone tell me why people keep shorting Priceline (PCLN - commentary - Trade Now)? It is a well-run company that is extremely popular and keeps delivering and delivering. Nonetheless, the short position is huge, hence the big rally today on the better-than-expected numbers.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my ActionAlertsPlus.com service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 7 p.m. Barnes & Noble, Manhattan (33 East 17th St.)





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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