A Market on Slippery Ground

If we lose oil here, we lose this market. If oil goes below $79, there will be panic in the patch, and the hedge funds will come down with hobnail boots on the Oil Service Index (OSX) and the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH - commentary - Trade Now) and Chevron (CVX - commentary - Trade Now) and Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Trade Now), all of which I key on.

We already have total fragility with Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Trade Now), as it has become the Achilles heel of the whole market! Plus, we also lost something this morning that's important to me: We are getting some people on air come out and say, "I like it here."

The multiple data points that have to happen to propel this market higher are:

1. Oil must stay over $79.
2. Tech needs upside surprises.
3. The bank index (BKX) must stabilize, something that I now believe can't happen until we get these darned secondaries done and the major banks are freed of TARP. Plus, we need to have a tremendous amount of bearishness, because we need shorts to have to cover.

Now, I see the good signs: the Hyatt deal, holy cow. Who needs a high-end hotel chain in their portfolio? Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) is being believed. Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now), Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now) and Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) are humming.

But don't for a minute believe we are solid ground with oil ticking down and Goldman (GS - commentary - Trade Now) and JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Trade Now) not breaking out to the upside.

Without those happening, we could have a good employment number -- something under 10% that shows some hiring or higher wages, meaning that there's about to be more hiring and less overtime -- and people will sell the market anyway and double-sell the financials.

What's the ultimate takeaway? Once again, it's the rolling bull market, and today the rolling bull market focuses on tech and nothing else of substantive strength.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Chevron, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.

ALL JIM CRAMER BLOG ENTRIES | POST A COMMENT | READ COMMENTS  

---

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.