I've suggested in past columns that in the wake of my insider buy/sell ratios falling off a cliff back in July 2003, a different interpretation of what level indicates bullishness may be necessary. It used to be that only inflection points downward after the ratios hit a level of positive 20% or more (indicating 20% more companies with open-market purchases than sales) indicated a solid buy signal for the indices.

While I do expect my ratios to act normally again when the various economic imbalances around the world normalize as well, they haven't yet. Therefore, I have to be open to the possibility that the present level of the ratios may once again be significant, given the odd economic time we are in.

This is hardly a strong confirmation of a continuing leg up, however, and my present market call is once again back to one of "treacherous." The potential reward of acting overly bullish or bearish right now just doesn't appear worth the risk. Still, I've committed a little more capital to the market recently, lowering my cash balance to 50% from 60%. Given that still very high cash balance, I'm hardly advocating jumping headfirst into this rally. But I am emboldened to nibble at some of the value stocks that could benefit from a healthier market, and these value stocks should theoretically hold up better if indices turn down again soon.

Four-Week Insider Average This level has been a tradeable bottom in the past.

Source: Insider Insights

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