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RealMoney.com: Economy
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Economic First Look: Calm Before Earnings

By Michael McDonough
RealMoney Contributor

7/5/2009 12:25 PM EDT
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The coming week's economic calendar is relatively quiet, especially compared to the hustle and bustle of last week. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing survey kicks off the week Monday, followed by Wednesday's consumer credit report, Thursday's jobless claims data, and Friday's U.S. trade statistics and consumer sentiment.

The impact of this week's non-manufacturing ISM survey could be somewhat subdued because its release comes after June's employment report, negating the importance the ISM survey's employment index. But significant declines or advances in the survey's business activity index could help shift ailing market sentiment. This week's big headlines, however, will likely be driven by the start of second-quarter earnings season. Alcoa (AA - commentary - Trade Now) is scheduled to kick off earnings season on Wednesday. There is also a G8 summit taking place this week in Italy, which could produce some headlines.

Here is the week's detailed calendar:

Monday, July 6

10:00 a.m. EDT: Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing survey (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate/Marginal): The survey's index will likely experience its third consecutive monthly rise. The current Bloomberg consensus for the index is 46.7, vs. last month's reading of 44.0. The market would interpret any positive surprises to this index as good news, echoing the better-than-anticipated data in the manufacturing sector, which helped support the case for a less severe recession. It will also be important to look at the non-manufacturing ISM's new order index, which tends to be a forward-looking indicator for the primary business activity index. Since June's employment data have already been released the ISM survey's employment index essentially is a non-factor.

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Michael McDonough is an independent research consultant in North America and Asia. Over the past two years, he has advised hedge funds, central banks, broker-dealers and corporations on a range of economic and financial issues. He is also the creator of Fiat Economics, a global financial/economics blog. McDonough has worked on Wall Street as an economist, specializing in the U.S. and Latin America.



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