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RealMoney.com: Commodities
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Need a Commodity Hedge? Check Out BVN

By Vasu Vijayraghavan
RealMoney contributor

5/8/2008 3:48 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Vasu Vijayraghavan
 
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The confusing signals originating from gold prices, in conjunction with movements in the dollar and the euro, have increased the fear factor for investors. Traditionally, gold rises as the dollar falls, increasing inflationary anxiety.

The recent decreases in the price of gold have confused markets to no end, and the attendant uncertainties regarding precious metals have placed a premium on miners, such as Peruvian miner Buenaventura (BVN - commentary - Cramer's Take), which has a stake in five metals -- two precious and three base.

The two precious metals, of course, are gold and silver. But BVN also mines lead, zinc and copper. As the following graphs show, although volatility in all five metals has been high, mining in all five simultaneously, as BVN does, provides a great commodities hedge.

Metals Spot Prices
Click here for larger image.
Source: Kitco

The above graphs show that while gold has seen a lot of volatility, the ascension of silver prices has been smoother, and lead and especially copper have been doing quite well recently.

Not a Pure Play

BVN, with a market cap of $8.9 billion, is a small-cap player compared to a competitor like Newmont Mining (NEM - commentary - Cramer's Take), a Denver-based company that is almost a pure play on gold (it has a minor interest in copper) with a market cap of $20.2 billion. The 51% increase in the price of gold in 2007 did wonders for the bottom line of Newmont, whose earnings increased by 440% over the first quarter of 2008. But BVN's earnings increased by 617% over the same period if the detrimental effect of unwinding a hedge were to be adjusted for and which reduced earnings by $2.08 a share. Including the effects of the hedge led to a loss of 49 cents a share for BVN.

BVN vs. NEM
Click here for larger image.
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Over the last five years, though, BVN's stock price increased by 80%, compared to a rise of 50% for NEM. Despite this increase in price, BVN is still reasonably valued, with a price-to-cash-flow ratio of 13.64, compared to sector norms of 14.80 and NEM's staggering 33.60.

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At the time of publication, Vijayraghavan was long BVN.

Vasu Vijayraghavan was an academic finance professor at the University of Paris who has now turned to a new career as a financial consultant. As an academic, she wrote on corporate governance issues, especially in the European context, and she believes in a long-run and balance sheet approach to stock picking.

Currently, Vasu is working as a consultant for lawyers, doing business valuation. She is a Level II CFA candidate and enjoys writing long/short and earnings calls pieces for TheStreet.Com.

Vasu holds a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan and a B.A. from Harvard University.




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