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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,285.97 1,091.93 2,172.99 33.92
Oil *
75.54
DOWN
104.14
DOWN
11.32
DOWN
16.62
DOWN
0.56
10 Yr
3.39%
SPDR Gold
110.95
-1.00%
-1.03%
-0.76%
-1.62%
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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,285.97 1,091.93 2,172.99 33.92
Oil *
75.54
DOWN
104.14
DOWN
11.32
DOWN
16.62
DOWN
0.56
10 Yr
3.39%
SPDR Gold
110.95
-1.00%
-1.03%
-0.76%
-1.62%
Data delayed 20 minutes

Commentary: Roque's Gallery
*New* Alerts! Please click here...

I Want My Market TV
By John Roque
Special to TheStreet.com
7/25/01 7:31 AM ET



Before some snappy sitcom or must-see drama hits the air and the "reality television" genre is scrapped, there must be an attempt to capture the emotions in this business. Forget Big Brother, Boot Camp, Castaway 2000, The Mole, Race Around the World, Temptation Island and Survivor.

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We have all of that, but the major networks have yet to put to the test a "reality" version of what we do every day. While you're pondering the possibilities -- and how frightening they may be -- here are the cast members I'd feature on my version of The Market:

  • Investor No. 1 has been managing money for 15 years and, before a period of tough performance this year and last, produced returns ahead of the S&P 500. He believes firmly in fundamental analysis, but has been "checking the charts" lately, realizing he has to be more active to make some money. He's biased to technology and telecommunications because "these are growth sectors. Technology is the future, and, while it's hard to see now, there's a New Economy. The Fed has cut rates 275 basis points, and the economy is turning. It's time to be bullish."

  • Investor No. 2 has been managing money for five years and, before a period of tough performance this year and last, produced returns ahead of the S&P 500. While he believes firmly in fundamental analysis, he's been "checking the charts" lately, realizing he has to be more active to make some money. He's biased to technology and telecom because "these are growth sectors. Technology is the future and, while it's hard to see now, there's a New economy. The Fed has cut rates 275 basis points, and the economy is turning. It's time to be bullish."

  • Investor No. 3 will trade anything at any time and, after working at a hedge fund for a few years, decided to do it on his own. He doesn't care where stocks are going and figures as long as a half-point can be made on 10,000 or 20,000 shares, concepts are a waste of time. He's always looking for the next 5% move.

  • Investor No. 4 is a value-oriented manager willing to check the charts to confirm or deny a story. He had a good year last year and is doing fine again in 2001. He doesn't know how far or how long his style will be in vogue, but he's quietly enjoying it while he can. He realizes the Fed has created a bias to be bullish because that is what history has shown, but finds it hard to juxtapose the Fed's activities with the inability of certain sectors to improve.

  • Investor No. 5 has no allegiance to any style or particular sectors. He worships at "The Church of Whatever's Working Now" and will be a contrarian when it suits him. While grounded conceptually, he understands completely that hewing to concepts can create big losses. Big losses are for people who already have plenty of money in the bank and can afford to lose their jobs. He's totally about performance and has learned "the hard way" that the charts usually don't lie.

    The cast members described above are a microcosm of the "sentiment" reads I get when marketing and talking to clients. While it may be ridiculous to pigeonhole investors, most people in this business fit into one of the above categories. (I did not include a "technical" cast member because nobody wants to watch a technical geek review 2,000 stocks with pen and notebook in hand.)

    I thought presenting sentiment this way might be a more interesting read than reviewing general sentiment indicators. In short, a bounce will likely occur as put/ call data are favorable. (The 10-day moving average of equity put/calls is 0.76, which means that puts are 76% of calls.) But I'm reluctant to get especially aggressive on large-cap stocks because sentiment measures like the Investor's Intelligence bullish and bearish data and the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index are too complacent to suggest a major up move is in the offing.

    By the way, I think Investor No. 5 is going to be the winner.

    Stock to Watch

    I've written about Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE - news - commentary) and tried to identify what I thought were risks in the stock. I think Citigroup (C:NYSE - news - commentary), which traded Monday afternoon near $50.65, has similar risks. The stock keeps trying to work above $50, but I think there's too much resistance in that area for it to satisfy long investors. It also makes sense, at least to me, that if the brokers have weakened, then Citigroup should also work lower. I would use rallies to reduce positions, and I expect the stock to work to $40.


    John Roque is the technical analyst at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, a New York-based investment brokerage firm specializing in Europe and the U.S., and a frequent guest on CNBC. At time of publication, Roque had no position in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. He appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to John Roque.
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    WorldInvestorTile
    Sorry, the page you requested could not be found

    Sorry that you couldn't find the page you wanted.

    Here are a couple of ways that can help you find that information successfully.

    Content Search:

    Quote Search:

    (Stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds)

    TheStreet Directory

    Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
    10,285.97 1,091.93 2,172.99 33.92
    Oil *
    75.54
    DOWN
    104.14
    DOWN
    11.32
    DOWN
    16.62
    DOWN
    0.56
    10 Yr
    3.39%
    SPDR Gold
    110.95
    -1.00%
    -1.03%
    -0.76%
    -1.62%
    		Data delayed 20 minutes