And, just in case you're of the opinion that there's a "baby bull market" going on, consider the following:

1. Here's the performance for the major indices since the Fed began snipping rates on Jan. 3, 2001, at 50 basis points a pop (my friend called it a "cut-to-date" meter):

Fed Cuts Leave Indices Unenthused
Fed Funds Cut	S&P 500	DJIA	Nasdaq	S&P 400	S&P 600
01/03/01	-10.00%	-2.90%	-22.50%	-0.96%	1.40%
01/31/01	-11	-2.4	-27	-3.5	-3
03/20/01	6.3	9.3	9.2	10.5	9.2
04/18/01	-1.9	0.07	-2.5	3.6	-4.9
05/15/01	-2.8	-2.3	-2.7	-0.6	-0.38
Source: TSC research

2. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, or SOX, is up 5.6% year to date. There are 16 stocks in the SOX (Theodor Geisel -- a.k.a., Dr. Seuss -- would've done a good job with the following: "Just how many bullish stocks are there in the SOX?") and year-to-date figures show that 10 are positive and six are negative (plus four net). But, if these numbers aren't enough to convince you that performance should be better -- given the fact that the Fed has lowered the fed funds rate 250 basis points -- consider that on this semiconductor train only one stock has had consistent performance year to date. Specifically, Advanced Micro (AMD:NYSE - news - commentary) is the only stock that has been up more than half of the time in 2001 (61 of the 115 trading days).

3. Of the 11 S&P economic sectors, only three have posted positive year-to-date returns in 2001. Basic materials, consumer cyclicals and energy are up 3.1%, 4.6% and 1.3%, respectively. The four-worst performing sectors are technology, down 21%; utilities, down 12.5%; health care, down 12%; and finance, down 6.7%. If there were a bull market going on, we think tech, health care and finance would not be at the bottom of the list. And, year-to-date numbers for the major indices show that only the S&P 600 is in positive territory (+1.2%).

4. I do a lot of work on groups, and here's what it shows so far in 2001: 51 of 106 S&P 500 groups are up year to date (48%), 48 of 87 S&P 400 groups are up year to date (55%) and 58 of 92 S&P 600 groups up year to date (63%).

5. I reviewed a boatload of stocks over the weekend and couldn't figure out what was uglier -- Sunday morning's weather or the charts. I definitely found some nice patterns and most of them were in the following groups -- hospitals, nursing homes, gold, pollution control/waste and tire/rubber. But, let's be realistic about it, if you are managing institutional money in a benchmarked portfolio, you probably aren't overweight many of the stocks in these groups (OK, maybe Waste Management, (WMI:NYSE - news - commentary), but not much more).

So what does this mean? I'm trying to show that there is no bull market, the Fed is coming dangerously close to the end of its easing cycle and, like junkies trying to get off smack, it ain't going to be easy weaning investors off the "buy-stocks-when-the-Fed-cuts-rates" thing. Furthermore, investment models based on the Fed cutting short-term rates are going to have to be back-tested again, given the disappointing results detailed above.

Small-caps continue to present better investment opportunities while most large-cap stocks (even when they do work) are trades. Patterns for most large-cap stocks are poor -- most will work lower and rallies are to be sold. And, lastly, Orlando Cepeda is the only "Baby Bull" I've ever heard of.