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Commentary: Roque's Gallery *New* Alerts! Please click here...
If you had the Sixers plus 12 in the first game of the NBA Championship, please let me know because you're my hero. I thought it would be neat if the Sixers could "steal" one in Los Angeles, but I didn't do anything -- if you know what I mean. But if you did, let's talk stocks and the market because you've got a tremendous handle on sentiment and I could use a little help. Here's something I sent out to my clients the other morning. It's a conversation I imagined that some fund manager was having after enjoying the 3.6% rally in Nasdaq on Tuesday. I'm repeating it because I believe it's a big part of what's going on in the market.
One Fund Manager Talking to Himself
You're hot. Yeah!
And here's what a client of mine wrote back. In the interest of full disclosure, the guy who wrote this has had some of the best numbers around over the past three years, so he's worth a listen:
How does it feel today? How's about another imaginary conversation?
So while the sentiment was clear on the Sixers vs. the Lakers -- everyone was talking about the Lakers sweeping the Sixers and contrary opinion won out -- the sentiment is much less clear on the overall market. I am sure of a few things, though:
I thought I'd seen it all over the past few years -- what with Mark McGwire hitting 70 home runs in 1998 and Sammy Sosa hitting 66 that same year and the Nasdaq up 40%. Then in 1999 McGwire hit 65 and Sosa hit 63 and, lo and behold, the Nasdaq boomed with an 86% gain. Now Bonds comes along and, so far, is ahead of them all. Bonds hit his league-leading 32nd home run in his 60th game, moving ahead of Ruth's pace in 1928 (30 homers in 63 games) and McGwire's pace in 1998 (30 homers in 64 games). And, in a game where a 30% success rate (70% failure rate) is considered Hall-of-Fame material, 57% of Bonds' hits this season have gone for home runs, and he's on pace to hit 86 by season's end. My friend says if Barry were a stock, his symbol would be HR. So the Federal Reserve was trying to re-inflate (reflate?). But do you think Greenspan & Co. had any idea they would've affected Bonds this much? Probably not. But they certainly did think, at least in my opinion, that they would've had more of an effect on large-cap stocks. Meanwhile, their efforts to aid the market and investors/consumers -- because they believe the market is responsible for consumer spending (perhaps the Fed should consider that stock market gains are responsible for foolish consumer spending) -- are having a tremendous effect on small-cap stocks. I don't think the Dow Jones Industrial Average makes a new high. I don't think it makes a new high because I don't believe my market bellwether, General Electric (GE:NYSE - news - commentary), makes a new high. I think the market (for argument's sake, let's call it the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) frustrates both bulls and bears for the remainder of the year: Large-cap bulls don't really get paid, nor do large-cap bears. Some stocks I am focusing on here include:
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John Roque is the technical analyst at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, a New York-based investment brokerage firm specializing in Europe and the U.S., and a frequent guest on CNBC. At time of publication, Roque had no position in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. He appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to John Roque.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,305.69 | 1,095.48 | 2,182.90 | 33.69 |
Oil *
75.59
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DOWN
84.42
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DOWN
7.77
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DOWN
6.71
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DOWN
0.79
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10 Yr
3.37%
SPDR Gold
112.26
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-0.81%
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-0.70%
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-0.31%
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-2.29%
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Data delayed 20 minutes |