Let's cut through the blather about "rising risks." The economy is heading toward a slump. Hell, it's slumping already. Third-quarter GDP growth was already down to 2.2 percent -- stall speed. Based on what we know now, the fourth-quarter numbers will be worse.

Now when an airplane stalls, it dives. And if you happen to be the pilot, what do you do? You go to full power. You pull up. Power restores speed; speed restores the equilibrium of level flight.

Like an airplane, the economy needs momentum. It needs the lift of optimistic expectations -- so that households, companies and local governments remain willing to buy assets, hold stocks and take out new debts. If optimism falters, sometimes it can be restored by quick and decisive policy action -- a compensating foot on the gas. If it fails altogether, though, then the economy, like the airplane, is in trouble.

And now, as the dive gathers speed, the captain has picked up the microphone. It is true, he tells the passengers, that the craft is slipping out of control. The ground is rushing up to meet the plane. But is any action being taken, to keep the plane aloft? Not yet. For the moment, after all, everyone is still alive. The captain therefore proposes to wait. Perhaps when the ground is closer, when he can see the mountains ahead and the runway below, he will react. Meanwhile, sit back, brace yourself, and enjoy the dive if you can.

What are they thinking? Do they really not understand? This is possible. Perhaps they imagine themselves on an airship -- the Graf Greenspan -- where other principles apply. "Not so fast!" "Not so high!" "More ballast!" Those have been the watchwords of the past year and a half. A timid captain and a frightened crew, horrified to find themselves aloft, terrified by every cloud and every breeze, praying for a soft landing.

And then there is one other possibility. Kamikaze pilots! Is there a faction on the Federal Reserve, or in its close proximity, that would actually prefer to take a recession now?

To answer that question, one need only read the commentary coming from the new administration, orchestrated by Larry Lindsey, a former vice chairman of the Fed. Lindsey sold his stocks long ago, I read. He understood that a slowing economy would put the election, otherwise an Al Gore landslide, into play. This proved to be entirely correct.

And a slump now? The not very disguised hope is that it will tarnish the golden record of the Clinton years, give Bush an early crisis he can cure with a tax cut, eliminate the pressures to expand social programs (by reducing the surplus), recreate the fiscal problems of Social Security -- and in all these ways advance the Republican agenda. People remember 1981-82, when Ronald Reagan survived his early recession and went on to a second term. They also remember 1990-91, when George Herbert Walker Bush got his recession a year too late, and did not recover in time.

Let's therefore suppose that we are seeing the unfolding of a cynical scheme. (Is nothing sacred? Sorry, not for me. Not anymore.)

Will it work? It might, but probably will not. A crucial difference: The Democrats were traumatized by Reagan. Jimmy Carter's economic policies had failed -- they had been crushed in the election -- and Reagan could claim a mandate for radical tax cuts and other programmatic changes.

This year, the Senate's Democrats especially did very well in the election, gaining seats against the odds. No one thinks Clinton's policies failed, and -- fairly or not -- any recession starting now will be credited to Bush. Moreover, much of Congress today is persuaded that budget surpluses are magic. A slowing economy may well, in this climate, make them less likely to enact tax cuts, not more so. As for Social Security privatization -- forget it (You have been watching the stock markets lately, I hope?)

The upshot? Here's a long-term forecast. The economy will continue to careen toward a crash landing. Bad news and worse sentiments will multiply. The Fed will move in late January -- but with baby steps that won't stop the slump. Bush -- so far showing no signs of flexibility in his dealings with Congress -- will call in his inaugural address once again for his campaign package, dressing it up, as Reagan did, as an "Economic Recovery Program." With that, the thin ice of bipartisanship will crack.

Congressional gridlock, political fury, and an economic freefall will, eventually, bring panic on Constitution Avenue. The Fed -- soon to be even more Republicanized -- will hit the gas hard sometime next spring or summer.