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Commentary: Biotech Sage *New* Alerts! Please click here...
It's a breath of fresh air to see investors' mood swing from negative to positive on biotech stocks in a short period. The Nasdaq Biotech index hit a high of 1089.02 on Jan. 3 and a low of 674.92 in April. Since then, it's rebounded handsomely.
But it's not easy to determine what fueled this change in sentiment. It could be positive news released on Novartis' (NVS:NYSE - news - boards) leukemia drug Gleevec. This therapeutic had such a sound, profound impact on patients who were treated with it that it led to a remarkably fast Food and Drug Administration review and approval for chronic myeloid leukemia. Or perhaps investors got psyched on news released from the American Society of Clinical Oncology about novel treatments for cancer that may have helped boost biotech stocks. Aside from the handful of profitable biotech companies that are closely followed by Wall Street analysts, it can be a daunting task for investors to get behind the scientific jargon and technology and separate the useful information from the hype.
Potential WinnersDuring UBS Warburg's recent conference, however, several biotech companies caught my attention because of their growth potential, particularly Cephalon (CEPH:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Celgene (CELG:Nasdaq - news - boards). (UBS Warburg rates both stocks a buy and has done underwriting in the past for Celgene.) Cephalon is focused on developing therapeutics for neurology and cancer. The company has three products being marketed in the U.S.: Provigil, Gabitril and Actiq. With these three drugs, Cephalon's projected revenue is about $240 million this year, and the company could be profitable for the first time in 2001, as the consensus estimate is for yearly earnings of 10 cents a share. Its key product is Provigil, used in the treatment of narcolepsy, or excessive sleepiness, and so far sales have been growing 15% to 20% each quarter. The company expects Provigil to continue being its key driver for growth. Cephalon plans to expand the label of Provigil by filing a supplementary new-drug application to the FDA. Provigil may get approval by the second half of next year for expanded usage with other diseases associated with fatigue. Cephalon has had a nice run, and a dip in its share price, probably due to profit-taking, could represent a good entry point for buying. However, Celgene is a riskier play. It has one drug on the market, Thalomid, used to treat leprosy. However, because Thalomid possesses strong anticancer activity, it is prescribed off-label to help treat cancer. Thalomid is tightly regulated, because it is associated with serious birth defects. For now, Celgene won't achieve profitability, but the drug has enabled the company to build a base for its future. Celgene is hoping that Thalomid will be approved for other conditions, such as multiple myeloma. Besides Thalomid, Celgene is awaiting FDA approval for Attenade, a drug to treat attention deficit disorder. Celgene has the potential; all it needs is positive clinical data to convince the FDA. At the UBS Warburg conference, many biotech companies lined up in the batter's box, hoping to hit a home run with investors. If you want to score as an investor, keep an eye on the ball -- you should be able to find valuable information that may help push shares higher. ![]()
Nadine Wong is the editor, publisher and cofounder of the monthly publication, BioTech Sage Report. She has also been the biotech columnist for worldlyinvestor.com since September 1999. At the time of publication, Wong held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Wong cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, she invites you to send comments on her column to Nadine Wong. Check out TheStreet.com's new portfolio tracker. The new tracker, powered by Money.net, provides streaming, real-time quotes so you can track your investments throughout the day. The real-time tracker includes all exchanges fees and permits you to track more than 200 stocks at the same time. There's a 30-day free trial and it costs $9.99 a month. For more details, click here.
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