Amid the flood of emails I received for Monday's column --- and my thanks to so many of you for some very kind words --- was one from a reader named Marc Gilman. He's a technical-analysis kind of guy and pretty firmly in JJC's camp regarding biotech at the moment. Quoth Marc:

Technical analysis says the BTK will absolutely positively take out 380, and it looks like 300 is targeted by the last week of the month. The good news is technical analysis also says the BTK should bounce to 630 around Friday/Tuesday

the T.A. is a little Elliott [Wave], some Neely, a good dose of Gann Theory and some exotic timing methods that would really undermine my credibility! All of that combined as a result of some very expensive trading experience.

So. Another gauntlet thrown. And my reaction? I believe biotech will dip after this rally (which began Tuesday after JJC was on CNBC) because the Nasdaq Biotech Index has bounced 15% and the American Stock Exchange Biotechnology Index, or BTK, is up 20% from its lows intraday on Monday:

That's a pretty righteous move, and I would expect a little retrenchment to consolidate. But that puts the BTK at 578 now, giving me a very hard time with the idea the BTK could dip to 300 by Jan. 31. Time will tell. (Wish I could get a bottle of champagne out of Marc, the way my colleague Don Luskin ante'd up last month . Now there's a man who stands by his forecasts.)

I'm a big believer the Nasdaq Composite will really start moving after earnings season proves not to be a disaster, and the Fed cuts rates a second time. (The old "two tumbles and a jump" rule.)

I don't believe biotech will be left out of the fun. But the drug stocks did do very well over the past 10 months and I think for now you can kiss them good-bye.

Totally aside from the little issue of Y2K comparisons -- many patients stocked up on drugs a year ago for fear of Y2K disruptions, so drug companies will have to beat tough comparisons on the December quarter -- the 45% premium to the S&P 500 at which drug stocks traded until two weeks ago is now evaporating. If I remember correctly, that premium dipped below zero last March, and it could very well happen again as biotech becomes more profitable.

By the by, Marc says if I print this stuff, I'll screw up his trade. Sounds like a disclaimer to me, and the Heisenberg uncertainty principle is no excuse on this site! So I told him he should have thought of that before he sent it to me.