Air Attack Starts in Online Travel War

Will the airlines follow the hotels' example, now that Orbitz (ORBZ - commentary - Cramer's Take) is gone? I think they will. I think they will redevelop their own sites to compete more directly with Orbitz, Sabre's (TSG - commentary - Cramer's Take) Travelocity and IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Worse, I think that the days of Yahoo! sending customers to those sites might be numbered. I believe Yahoo!'s going to try to keep that traffic for itself, and that that's the reason it has been making acquisitions in the space.

A little history is in order here. The hotels decided last year that they were sick and tired of losing business to the aggregator sites and started to emphasize their own sites. The major hotels have convinced consumers that they'll get a better deal at the hotel sites than from an aggregator. I don't even know if it is true, but I do know that's what they have convinced the consumer of.

I believe that the selling of Orbitz by the airline consortium is the opening salvo in a war that will pit the airline sites against the aggregators. This war will use the same logic with consumers: If you go to the airline site, you will do better than the aggregator. Given that the consumer is similarly programmed already, you have to wonder what will happen to the aggregators.

If your takeaway from this is to short IAC, think again. The stock's really been laid low, and the company's real manager, Barry Diller, isn't going to sit still. He sees what I see. He can make some changes to other ends of the business or make an acquisition that can change the game.

But the threat from the airlines' sites is real. The business model of the aggregators is definitely questionable. And Yahoo!'s on the warpath itself.

Nothing here to invest in, nothing at all.

Random musings: Flummoxed by Lucent (LU - commentary - Cramer's Take). I mean, this morning Goldman Sachs comes out and says Lucent is going to surprise to the upside and people still aren't buying. What an immovable object this stock is!

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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Lucent.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to [e-mail]. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Click here to buy Cramer's latest book, "You Got Screwed!" Click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."