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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Note the Negative Divergences
Page 2



So both the 10-day moving average (the oscillator) and the 30-day moving average of the A/D line are simultaneously overbought, and that's rare.

Despite the great Easter rally, the McClellan Summation Index, which is based on the advance/decline line, now requires a net differential of -1,100 to turn down. Not too terrible, right? Well, a week ago, it required -1,300 to turn down, so what progress has it made in the past five trading days?

Remember, the market has been up the past five trading days. Don't you wonder what would happen to this index if we had a few down days?

I didn't even mention that this is the second lower high in the indicator: another lower high, while the underlying index goes to a higher high. Once again, this is the definition of a negative divergence.



The number of stocks making new highs is still lower than it was in February, which was lower than it was in December. Again, this is a negative divergence, with the index moving higher and the indicator at a lower high.



Also on the topic of new highs, we hear a lot about how Europe and Asia are outperforming the U.S., but here are two charts that highlight this vast difference. The first chart is the number of common stocks on the NYSE making new highs minus new lows on a 10-day moving average. It includes ADRs, or foreign stocks, and REITs. The bottom chart excludes them. The difference is eye-opening.





Volume rose on the Nasdaq yesterday to the highest level we've seen since last Wednesday. I should note that last Wednesday was a down day. So the ensuing rally came on lighter volume. Volume is simply not confirming price.



On the sentiment side, I heard someone interviewed on TV yesterday who said, "There is a permanent [buyout] bid under the market." We surely can't disagree with him on that. But do you ever hear comments like that at market lows?

Anecdotally, when was the last time you heard someone remind you to "sell in May and go away"? We heard a lot of that in mid-March at the lows, but not now. Now, we hear of a new era for stocks.

On six of the past eight trading days, the put/call ratio has been under 100%. The last time that happened was late March, just before the S&P 500 saw a 20-point loss.

I still believe it's time to sell the Easter rally.






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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.

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