In case you really thought the early part of 2009 was going to be any different from 2008, the headlines should help relieve you of that notion. The talk remains of weak economic conditions, geopolitical unrest and the condition of Steve Jobs' health. The list of Madoff victims continues to grow. The incoming president is on Capitol Hill, pushing his combination of government spending and tax cuts to reignite the moribund economy.
It seems to me that a combination of reduced income and increased spending is how we got in this mess in the first place, but what do I know? What bothers me the most is that all the bullish prognosticators I hear and read are basing their cases on unknowns. We do not know what form the stimulus will take or how long it will take to stem the tide of job losses. Will having the Fed buy mortgage-backed securities really help stop the decline in housing? Again, we have no idea. What concerns me is what we do know. The economy remains weak, housing is still declining, and corporate earnings are horrible.
What if I am wrong? I believe the market has at least one big bump down before we can even begin to think about a bottom, but what if I am wrong? My bread and butter is stock-picking for the long term based on individual company fundamentals. Occasionally I put on a macro trade like my current long iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT - commentary - Cramer's Take) LEAP puts and long U.S. Oil Fund (USO - commentary - Cramer's Take) LEAP calls, but I never claimed to be the world's greatest stock market directional trader. In truth, I pay a lot more attention to the market calls of Rev Shark and Doug Kass than to my own on a short-term basis. So, what if I am wrong? Ask my kids -- it happens sometimes.
Investing 360 Degrees of 2009 Predictions 1/2/2009 3:42 PM EST RealMoney contributors read the tea leaves and make their 2009 forecasts.
At the time of publication, Melvin had no positions in stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.Tim Melvin is a writer from Stevensville, Maryland, who spent 20 years a stockbroker, the last 15 as a Vice President of Investments with a regional firm in the Mid Atlantic area. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Melvin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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