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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Bears Use Twisted Logic

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/19/2009 3:52 PM EST
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If I were a bear, I would be arguing in the alternative right here. I would be saying, "The economy's sputtering badly here, really punking out, but if it isn't, the Fed should be raising rates aggressively."

 
I would be saying, "There's a coming commercial real estate crash, but there might be a bubble happening at the same time!"

I would be saying, "Stocks are hideously overvalued here, but if they aren't, the Fed better tighten last week because inflation will rage."

These are the kinds of things that I am hearing from those who need the market lower.

Don't forget, I don't think that's a sin, no more sin than those who need the market higher. The longs are motivated and so are the shorts, and the rights of both should be hallowed.

I am simply pointing out that arguing in the alternative works in court, but it should not work in the court of money, and I think the logic in these arguments is specious, even as I champion the rights of the bears to talk the market down any time they might wish to. Of course, these are all macro arguments, ones that I often tire of. I am more willing to consider the notion that you can't have your bearish cake and eat it, too. You can't presume that things are horrible and then argue what should happen because they are good.

It just makes you no money.

Random musings: Lots of upgrades and positives are really being ignored here. Let me count 'em. NetApp's (NTAP - commentary - Trade Now) positives are not translating into any other techs, as if it is zero sum. All the good chatter about Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Trade Now) is being ignored for the big hoopla of the Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now)/ Merrill chip downgrade. Go get the ThinkEquity piece to counter it.... Deere's (DE - commentary - Trade Now) target was raised by Jefferies, yawn. Just pointing out what's being obscured by the commoditization of stocks.... If General Growth Properties (GGP - commentary - Trade Now) has pizzazz, where's the commercial real estate crash? When? When?... Shocker, mortgage delinquencies are up. They correlate perfectly with job losses.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my Action Alerts PLUS service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 7-9 p.m. Barnes & Noble, White Plains (230 Main Street)





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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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