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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Ag and Shippers Are the Newest Bull Markets

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/18/2009 7:34 AM EST
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During the great narrow bull market that was 2006-2007, anyone who hitched a ride on any bulk or oil carrier, any DryShips (DRYS - commentary - Trade Now) or Diana (DSX - commentary - Trade Now), or any Frontline (FRO - commentary - Trade Now) or Nordic American Tanker (NAT - commentary - Trade Now), or anyone who bought anything ag-related -- Deere (DE - commentary - Trade Now), Monsanto (MON - commentary - Trade Now), Potash (POT - commentary - Trade Now) -- looked like a genius.

Beginning midyear last year, you looked like a moron.

You are now about to look like a genius again. The rates for shipping have turned harder than a Nascar driver avoiding an accident on the turn. When I saw them this weekend I thought it was a mistake. The bulk carrier increases are finally catching up with the Baltic Freight Index, and even the most seasoned of shippers are astonished about the turn. The oil carriers aren't experiencing the same "V" bottom, more of a "U," but Nordic American, which is all double-hulled, thinks rates can only go up right now, as China last week said it would be banning single-hulled ships.

Michael McDonough on the Shippers

Ag's a little more difficult because there's still plenty that can go wrong. The fertilizer stocks don't have the ethanol story behind them, and the spur -- a 30% increase in corn prices -- may not be enough to turn the complex around. The companies, particularly Potash, have been famously promotional throughout the downturn and quick to call any spike up the beginning of a new bull market. Chinese orders haven't helped. But I think that this space, at last, is at a bottom worth playing, and the breakout has been furious.

Deere's the most controversial of all, as it was a darling that has repeatedly failed to execute its own pullback, making Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now) management look like geniuses. But that's helped create a low bar for Deere even at the 52-week high we got yesterday, and that should help immensely when it reports next week.

Two brand-spanking-new bull markets for those who have missed the rest, ag and shipping. Thanks to Dan Fitzpatrick and Stephanie Link from RealMoney and Action Alerts PLUS for explaining how well they can work.

Random musings: A big thank you for all who came to Barnes & Noble last night for the signing. It was electric!

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my Action Alerts PLUS service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 7-9 p.m. Barnes & Noble, White Plains (230 Main Street)





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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