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APOL Is in a Sorry State
Page 2

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Management expects the cost/start to decline in coming quarters as the hiring binge is absorbed. Additional spending is expected to offset some savings that the company is generating in instructional costs and better pricing from certain vendors.

Apollo is building out 25 new resource centers based on the successful prototype introduced in Plano, Texas last year. The Insight high school chain is ramping quickly as it gains more state approvals. Insight should be operating in 10 states by the fall, up from four now. Finally, management is also testing various other retention initiatives that are impacting SG&A.

Student financial aid is still a looming issue for Apollo, although the data presented on the call seemed pretty benign. Bad debt expense increased a bit, to 3.85% of revenue from 3.5% last year, due to more associate degree students. Initiatives in collections and retention should help here. Management pointed out that private lenders still only constitute 4% of total financial aid offered to students; 96% of aid is via Title IV federal lending. The company added Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) as a fifth preferred lender as of the end of February. If a financial aid crisis is brewing that could impact enrollments, the evidence for it is not here yet.

Net-net, there were few shocking revelations in the call commentary. Perhaps that makes the miss all the more shocking, as it is difficult to tie it to some new long-term development. Despite the stock already giving up 20% year to date, the selloff is justified by the level of "un-anticipation" of the miss -- no analysts were out detecting looming issues. Management was pretty far along in re-establishing its credibility after a huge upside last quarter. That credibility is now gone, of course, so the rebuilding process must begin anew.

APOL Preview: How's Bachelor Life?

A few investors are probably surprised that Apollo Group (APOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) would end up a victim of the credit crisis, until one considers that the vast majority of its students require financial aid to pay tuition. The stock is down 17% year-to-date despite reporting outstanding upside in the last quarter.

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At the time of publication, Dvorchak had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.

Gary Dvorchak is a managing partner of Aviance Capital Management, a Sarasota, Fla.-based institutional asset manager that manages $200 million in growth and value equities and fixed income. Dvorchak holds a master's degree in business administration from Northwestern University and a bachelor's degree in computer science from the University of Iowa.




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