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Retail Review: Weekend Reading
By Paul Kedrosky
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/08/09 02:30 PM EST
Good Sunday afternoon, and welcome to another edition of Weekend Reading. First a look back at the week that just finished, then a look forward to the week ahead, and, lastly, a summary of articles and research papers worth reading.
It was an impressive week for the major markets, especially given how badly the previous week ended. For the most part, equities around the world posted gains. The major U.S. indices were up more than 3%, and the Shanghai Composite advanced 5.6%. Oil and gold both did well on the week, with the latter hitting new highs on the back of an almost 5% gain on the week. The dollar firmed up slightly, largely on technicals after weeks of weakness. Click here to see a table showing how major markets performed.
Next week the attention will turn to retail, at least in the U.S. We have a spate of retailers reporting. The only surprise will be if they report that U.S. consumers are spending at historical levels, which will be a sign that they are making things up or their
computers are malfunctioning. Although we will see some improvement from the pits of last January, that isn't necessarily saying much. None of this will be news to the markets, however, so unless we see a major surprise the markets could conceivably churn higher on hopes that global growth will drag Western economies out of recession faster than nonspending U.S. consumers are dragging them down.
Turning to economic indicators, it will be a big week for Treasury debt sales, and the first one since the Fed's Treasury purchase program ended, so it will be important to see what demand looks like. Next week we will also data on the September international trade
deficit for the U.S., plus an initial reading on November consumer sentiment.
As for earnings, here are some retail reports to watch for:
Wal-Mart
(WMT:NYSE)
, Kohl's
(KSS:NYSE)
, Macy's
(M:NYSE)
and J.C. Penney
(JCP:NYSE)
.
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Lastly, here are some articles and research papers worth reading:
Editor's note: To access some of these stories, registration or a subscription may be required. Please check the individual links for each site's policy.
- Inside the Global Frenzy for Gold. (The New York Times)
- Las Vegas construction nears standstill. (Las
Vegas Sun)
- The Technology Behind the Madoff Scam. (IDD)
- Barron's picks Sherwin-Williams
(SHW:NYSE)
and L-3 Communications
(LLL:NYSE)
. (Barron's)
- Apple
(AAPL:NYSE)
said to be working on CDMA-based 'world-mode' iPhone. (CNET)
- Bank of England says financiers are fuelling an economic 'doom
loop.' (Telegraph)
- What is the true value of the United States' gold? (The Washington Post)
- Lessons From the War Over Skype. (The New York Times)
- Books: The Predictioneer's Game - Using the Logic of Brazen
Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. (The New York Times)
- Paulson's Gift. (NBER)
- Interview with Juniper Networks
(JNPR:NYSE)
CEO Kevin Johnson. (SiliconValley)
- California Securitizing a Repayment Promise. (Bond
Buyer)
- U.S. oil reserves down by record amount in 2008. (EIA)
- Are the central banks blowing new bubbles? (Times)
- House approves bill to overhaul health care. (Reuters)
- Preparing for the auto summit. (Reuters)
- Dollar General set to price IPO at rich valuation. (Reuters)
- Why this commercial real estate bust is different. (BusinessWeek)
- Valuing Bonds, Dollar Is Crazy in World Gone Mad. (Bloomberg)
- First iPhone, now Droid. Who needs Windows? (CNET)
- Unemployment in America: Jobs gloom, with glimmers. (The
Economist)
- Sex toys sell, even in a recession. (San
Francisco Chronicle)
- In Mutual Fund Flows, a Worrying Sign for Stocks. (The New York Times)
- Interview with commercial real estate banker Howard L. Michaels.
(The New York Times)
- Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural
interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices.
(NBER)
- Why Do Central Banks Exist? (SSRN)
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