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Winners & Losers: Same-Store Sales
By Jeanine Poggi
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
11/05/09 12:43 PM EST

(Updated with ICSC data and stock.)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- While October same-store sales jumped 2.1%, in the strongest result for the metric since July 2008, there were still some unexpected winners and losers.

Out of the 28 companies tracked by TheStreet, 13 beat expectations while 12 missed forecasts.

Still, despite the big gain, retail shares were mixed, with the S&P Retail Index inching up just 1% to 385.56 in morning trading.

One of the biggest surprises was American Eagle Outfitter's (AEO:NYSE) 5% same-store sales decline. Analysts were actually predicting a jump of 1.7%.

As a result, shares are plunging 12.8% to $15.57 in afternoon trading.

The teen retailer saw traffic slow toward the end of the month and offered fewer promotions than last year. Its men's category declined in the mid-single digit range, more than its women's category did.

American Eagle expects third-quarter earnings between 20 cents and 21 cents a share, slightly lower than the 22 cents Wall Street is forecasting.

Aeropostale (ARO:NYSE) posted a 3% increase, significantly below analysts' forecast of a 13.8% surge.

The company raised its third-quarter guidance to 90 cents to 91 cents a share. It previously expected earnings between 84 cents and 85 cents a share.

Investors, however, are not forgiving, sending shares in the company plummeting 14.6% to $32.48.

Zumiez (ZUMZ:NYSE) tumbled 8.9% during the month, missing the 6.7% drop Wall Street expected. Shares of the skate-and surf-inspired retailer are off 5.7% to $12.69.

Limited Brands (LTD:NYSE) , a favorite stock for Citi analysts for the holiday season, fell 4%, missing the 2.7% decline predicted.

By brand, sales at Victoria's Secret tumbled 6%, sank 7% at La Senza and were up 2% at Bath & Body Works.

Value-priced department stores J.C. Penney (JCP:NYSE) and Kohl's also missed expectations.

J.C. Penney saw a 4.5% decline, compared with 3.5% drop Wall Street forecast. The department store tightened its third-quarter guidance between 10 cents and 11 cents a share. It previously expected earnings in the range of 3 cents to 10 cents a share.

Kohl's raised its third-quarter guidance, despite failing to meet expectations. The company saw a 4.9% increase, but this was still lower than the 6.2% jump forecast.

Kohl's foresees third-quarter earnings in the range of 60 cents to 61 cents a share, better than the prior outlook of 52 cents to 54 cents a share.

Shares of J.C. Penny are sinking 6.5% to $30, while Kohl's is off 2.4% to $55.20.

Indeed, while those who missed forecasts were severely punished, those who beat estimates were glanced over.

Surprisingly, it was the high-end department stores Nordstrom (JWN:NYSE) and Saks (SKS:NYSE) that actually came in better than expected.

"The improvement in the stock market has had a significant impact on the affluent shopper's willingness to spend -- as the luxury market has shown its first positive reading since May 2008," Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, said in a statement.

Nordstrom climbed 6.5%, easily topping the 3% gain analysts expected. During the month the company saw strength in kid's shoes, coats and dresses.

Saks, while only inching up 0.7%, was actually forecast to report a decrease of 3.6%. Though it continues to see some weakness, Saks actually saw a boost in women's designer sportswear, outerwear and jewelry. Its direct business and Off 5th concept were also strong.

The luxury retailer reaffirmed that same-store sales for the second half of the year will decline in the mid-to-high single digit range.

Regardless, Saks is only up 2% to $5.68, while Nordstrom is gaining a mere 1.7% to $33.16 in afternoon trading.

The Gap (GPS:NYSE) , which has been struggling long before the recession, posted a 4% spike, driven by its Old Navy chain.

By division, sales at its namesake store tanked 6%, jumped 5% at Banana Republic and soared 14% at Old Navy.

The Gap expects third-quarter earnings between 42 cents and 44 cents a share, above consensus estimates of 38 cents a share.

This win, however, is only resulting in a 3% jump in Gap shares this afternoon to $22.76.

Less shocking was the Ross Stores (ROST:NYSE) beat. The off-pricer posted a 9% surge, passing the 7.3% increase predicted. The off-price sector has been benefiting from consolidation in the department store sector, and amid the recession has been able to continuously post sales gains.

Ross raised its third-quarter profit forecast to a range of 83 cents to 84 cents a share from its prior view of 75 cents to 77 cents a share.

The off-pricer is inching up by just 0.9% to $45.30 in afternoon trading.

-- Reported by Jeanine Poggi in New York

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