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Maven: Too Much Housing Hope

12/29/06 - 12:12 PM EST

Marek Fuchs

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My goodness, was that easy. Did you hear? The housing correction is over. Our long national nightmare is finished, almost before it even began. It must be high time to jump whole-hog back to all those former lovers: Toll BrothersTOL, KB HomeKBH, D.R. HortonDHI, Pulte HomesPHM and HovnanianHOV.

The Business Press Maven is, as you probably guessed, being his normal haughty, sarcastic and by-and-large intolerable self. But who on God's green earth can blame me?

As you know, The Business Press Maven is always highly critical of the business media for allowing a pattern of three to qualify as a trend. But apparently now two can do the deed. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes blipped up 0.6% in November, following a 0.5% increase in October.

How did those modest little facts play?

In its lead, the Associated Press declared that "the worst of the downturn for the battered housing market may be over." Lower down, it hedges, mentioning those ever-present and always plural "analysts" who say that "this year's slide in housing is starting to bottom out." The Business Press Maven seconds that with his first-ever ironclad guarantee. After all, with today being the last business day of the year, the housing market doesn't have too much longer to slide in 2006.

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At the time of publication, Fuchs had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column.

A journalist with a background on Wall Street, Marek Fuchs has written the County Lines column for The New York Times for the past five years. He also contributes regular breaking news and feature stories to many of the paper's other sections, including Metro, National and Sports. Fuchs was the editor-in-chief of Fertilemind.net, a financial Web site twice named "Best of the Web" by Forbes Magazine. He was also a stockbroker with Shearson Lehman Brothers in Manhattan and a money manager. He is currently writing a chapter for a book coming out in early 2007 on a really embarrassing subject. He lives in a loud house with three children. Fuchs appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.


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