Market Features
Currently, in the U.S., at least 16 million employees work at home at least one day a week, according to Minda Zetlin, author of Telecommuting for Dummies.
An Upward Trend
That number will increase, predicts Dr. Charles Grantham, whose forthcoming book about the psychology of the Internet is due next spring. According to Grantham, about 7.54% of the U.S. workforce telecommuted at the end of 2000. "I wouldn't be surprised to see that figure go over 12% or so by the second quarter of next year," he says. "If we have another major incident, though, all bets are off." Like many others, Grantham marks his sense of history as pre- and post-Sept. 11. Before the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, many employers struggling in a shaky economy cut back on perceived perks like alternative work options, he says. "After Sept. 11, what I've sensed is a sea-change kind of shift on the part of employees, especially those with young families who are questioning the wisdom of working in highly centralized urban areas," he explains. Indeed, average workers now have a more convincing reason to discuss the option of telecommuting with their employers. Before Sept. 11, many employers considered the chance to work at home as a bonus to offer potential hires. Now, however, they're seeing it in a different light. An increasing number of companies recognize the risks of putting their key employees in one place, and that may result in the growth of satellite offices and teleworking centers, according to June Langhoff, editor of ITAC Telework News, a monthly newsletter for telecommuters. "We see the world as a more dangerous place than it was a month ago," says Zetlin. "Telecommuting is one part of the constellation of solutions to this problem. If applied correctly, telecommuting is a benefit to employers because it saves resources in the office. It frees up space and bandwidth, for example. And you get a more efficient and loyal employee in the process."The Downside
But by no means is telecommuting a perfect solution. For example, workers at M&R Capital Management in New York found themselves displaced after the World Trade Center collapse. The company's Fulton Street office didn't sustain serious structural damage, but its switching station was destroyed, leaving them temporarily without a viable telecommunications infrastructure. After working at home for a few days, the employees set up shop in a temporary downtown location until AT&T can provide them with a wireless solution.Investing Implications
If you're inclined to play the telecommuting game from the bleachers as an investor, pick carefully. Although most Internet service providers will see a boost in business from this trend, it'll be incremental at best, says Maloney of M&R Capital, which has about $300 million under management. "There's possibly a much bigger plus for niche players that target that market in software," he adds. Want names? Cody Willard, president of TelEconomics Consulting and a frequent TSC contributor, says the best picks are in niches. "Software vendors and enablers of VPN [virtual private networks, which allow employees to make a secure connection to their employers' local-area network] are probably the purest play on the telecommuting trend," he says. "Checkpoint CHKP is the clear leader in VPN software, although the stock is mighty expensive. Cisco CSCO also makes good VPN software, but it's a very insignificant part of its business." Of course, a larger picture emerges, too. "The events of the past weeks, beginning with Sept. 11, are going to create a climate in which all business leaders are going to fundamentally sit back and address how we organize what we do -- the time and space in which we do that," Grantham says. "I think the driver for the future in companies will be those who invest more and more in social capital. I'm going to invest in companies that do this, not those who think this is business as usual." Certainly, very little since Sept. 11 feels like business as usual.In the wake of the attacks, more companies are equipping their employees to work from home.
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