Big Week for Retail

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Dec. 20 at 11:09 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

With less than a week to go before Christmas, it's time to see how the retail sector is stacking up and whether or not there's enough juice to fuel a dynamite holiday shopping season. The question is, if you're already in retail, do you stay, and if you want to get in, is now the time? The answer to the former is yes; to the latter, no.

Let's start with the most recent historical numbers, and then I'll get to why this is the biggest week for retailers so far this season.

Retail sales surprised everyone in November, blasting ahead a solid 1% compared with October. The surge higher was broad and robust, led by a stunning 4.6% increase in sales at electronics and appliance stores. Even "core" retail sales -- which strip out volatile auto and gas sales -- jumped 0.9%. To top things off, October's results -- which were initially reported as falling 0.2% -- were revised upward to a fall of just 0.1%, a positive sign.

Compared with a year ago, November's retail sales results were even brighter. Sales for the sector were up 5.6%, the biggest year-over-year jump since August. Without auto and gas sales, core retail sales grew a solid 6.4%. Like the month-over-month comparisons, the increases were broad and robust, led by a 10.1% increase in nonstore retailers, a 7.9% jump in restaurant sales and a 8.6% gain in electronics and appliance sales. Clothing and apparel stores booked a respectable 6.7% increase compared with a year ago.

These results are good, no doubt about it. But they're not blowing me away to the degree that I can say without a doubt that this holiday shopping season is already "in the bag." The jury is still out on that one, and this week will be a big key.

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