Special Note: Helene Meisler is taking a couple days
off so there will be no newsletter this evening or on
Tuesday, Sept. 30. The regular newsletter schedule will
resume on Wednesday, Oct. 1.
Friday was interesting because the market actually gave
you a chance to play the oversold rally after the open.
How many times have we seen the market simply gap up when
we have seen such an oversold setup and it doesn’t let
you play? This time it let you play.
What you should like about Friday’s action is that the
market is still oversold. But more than that is the fact
that the put/call ratios were incredibly high for the
second day in a row. The put/call ratio for the ETFs was
even higher than it was on Thursday (250% Friday vs. 232%
Thursday). The total put/call ratio stayed high at 113%.
And then there was the Market Volatility Index’s (VIX)
put/call ratio, which sunk back below 20% (again, this is
a sign that folks are betting on a higher VIX, lower
For the first time in at least two years, the low VIX
put/call ratio did not work last week, having had a
reading of 11% on Friday, Sept. 19. That was a change
last week, unless, of course, we count Wednesday and
Friday’s rallies. I’ll put this in the category that they
got it right; it was not contrarian for the week.
Then there is the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate
Bond Fund (HYG), that I have been harping about for
weeks now. It did not confirm the rally Friday. There is
a “but” to this though. Notice the action on Friday, as
it plunged to the August low and reversed to close almost
unchanged. If there is any follow-through on the upside,
that would support an oversold rally. I had thought it
would bounce off that $91.75-$92-ish area, but I was
wrong. It plunged to $91 before reversing. If it cannot
keep this reversal going, then, clearly, the oversold
rally is in jeopardy.
The reality is there are so many disconnects in the
market right now. The question I get asked most often is
about how all these indicators can be so oversold and
sentiment can have gotten so bearish even though the
S&P 500 mere points off its all-time highs. I have
said time and again, I can come up with only one reason:
the flood of money into index funds has caused this
distortion. If we understand that individual stocks do
not match the indices, then we can understand why the
indicators look as though they do. In the market of 10
years ago that would have eventually brought the S&P
lower; in this market, it stays supported.
Another disconnect is the dollar. The dollar had a
heckuva day on Friday and gold barely budged. Lately, a
move in the buck (upward) has caused downward spiraling
of gold and that did not happen Friday. Speaking of the
dollar, the Daily Sentiment Index has moved to 91 on it;
that’s a lot of bulls. But what really struck me was how
all of a sudden the equity folks seemed to have
discovered the dollar during the latter part of last
week. In my experience, when equity folks discover
something they typically don’t pay much attention to,
especially after a big move has occurred, then the market
is usually close to a short-term reversal.
Another disconnect is the volume in the PowerShares
QQQ (QQQ). You might recall that was one of my
reasons for thinking that the market should rally in my
Thursday night newsletter. Typically, a spike in volume
like that marks a low. Yet Friday’s volume was nearly the
same as Thursday’s in the Qs. That is not typical. When
folks do not know what to short, they jump on the Qs,
which is one reason we see volume spike on these down
days. But once an oversold rally ensues, the volume in
the Qs dries up. Yet Friday volume in the market was
pathetically low and volume in the Qs stayed elevated. I
can only conjure up a guess that there was a lot of short
covering in the Qs Friday because it surely wasn’t in
The best thing this market can do now is come back down
midweek this week. I think if it does then that will set
it up for a better rally in October. But I’ll admit those
high put/call ratios have me wondering if they can take
them down that soon.
One thing that might help the market come back down is
that (as I mentioned above) I am taking a few days off
I am going to whittle down my request list a bit today.
It’s long, but I love your requests, so please keep them
coming! I just don’t want them to back up while I take a
few days off.
So, we’ll look at the European ETFs that are on the list,
beginning with iShares MSCI Germany (EWG), an ETF
to be long Germany’s DAX. When we last checked in on this
a few weeks ago it was hovering in the $29 area and I was
looking for a retest of the lows. This last week gave us
that. Now I look for a rebound (i.e., an oversold rally).
My eyes are on the $28.75 area now. If it cannot rally up
and over that during this oversold time frame, then we
will look for a break of $28 the next time down.
iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI), the ETF to be
long Italy’s market, has curiously not fared as poorly as
Germany’s even though their news is seemingly worse. It
has had a similar pattern of rally and retest but has not
gone all the way back to the August lows. If this rally
cannot get back above $16, then I would look for another
serious decline. If it can get back above $16, I’ll
consider this last move down a decent retest.
The Hi-Lo Indicator for the Nasdaq is back to the
levels it has bottomed from before. Each time we have
rallied from this point, the rallies have been narrower
and narrower. If this indicator cannot get down below 15%
(see the 2012 lows on the chart) then I suspect the
market will be in the same place it has been: another
narrow, oversold rally. Cheer for some more downside
later this week to get this below 15%.
Helene welcomes your questions about Top Stocks
and her charting strategy and techniques. Please send
an email directly to Helene with your questions. However,
please remember that TheStreet.com Top Stocks is
not intended to provide personalized investment advice.
Email Helene here.
Eaton (ETN) still has an unfulfilled target around
$61-ish but please notice how little selling there was in
the stock this last week, which was a seriously down week
in the market. That is a bright side for the stock.
Failure to rally above $67 on this oversold rally would
set up the decline toward the target down near $61.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) has not done a thing
wrong. I can no longer calculate a measured target on
this so I would say as long as it stays above that line
(which is my expectation for now), the stock should be OK
Avago Technologies (AVGO) is not my kind of chart,
as support is so far away. There is minor support at $85
and the measured target area of $90 has been met. So as
long as it stays above $85, I suppose it is OK to hold.
However, a break below $85 would start the process of
But I do think the market can and should rally in the short term.
The market got a whoosh and a rebound, which did at least relieve the short-term oversold condition.
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