I saw someone say today that every stock he owned was
either red or flat. My initial reaction was to laugh
until I realized my portfolio wasn’t that much different.
Clearly, I have missed all the good hot stocks in this
But maybe that’s what happens when the S&P opens up 10
points, then sits there all day and the net breadth of
the market leaves us with a net differential of plus 720
issues. Even worse is net volume. I cannot even believe
these numbers can be correct. The differential between up
and down volume was plus 300 million shares. Two days
ago, the S&P 500 added nearly 15 points and the net
volume was plus 1.35 billion shares.
Yet the S&P keeps pushing higher. And if the Scots vote
“No,” on independence from the U.K., it will likely
continue to push higher -- whether individual stocks play
along or not. I really think this is because of all that
passive money that is going into index funds and out of
I can cite plenty of statistics that say this is not a
widespread rally, but you probably see it in your own
portfolios as well. So, instead, I will share with you
that the 30-day moving average of the put/call ratio
finally turned down (shown below) and that is bullish.
What we should watch for now is the level on the S&P 500.
This resistance line has been a good one for nearly three
months now. With the market now pushing back to a short-
term overbought reading (it’s already intermediate-term
overbought), the key is to see if it can push through
this line. If the market fails to push above it, when it
ought to correct in the next few weeks. If it can push
over it, then the market will probably mill around to
digest the overbought reading and then rally on.
I had really thought the market would spend more time
correcting into late September and then set up a year-end
rally. But if the market doesn’t come back down next
week, then my timing will clearly have been wrong.
I wish I had a list of stocks that looked like bases, but
you can see the bases don’t even work! So I will go back
to the Google (GOOG, GOOGL) chart, which everyone
seems to ask about. My worry is that spike overhead just
above $600, but it did hold $580 on the downside. So if
GOOGL can shoot up and over this congestion area, it
should eventually push higher, toward $650-ish,
I really wish it would wait for mid-to-late October
though! I just feel that if it waits, it can keep it
going into year-end.
The 30-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio is
heading down now.
Helene welcomes your questions about Top Stocks
and her charting strategy and techniques. Please send
an email directly to Helene with your questions. However,
please remember that TheStreet.com Top Stocks is
not intended to provide personalized investment advice.
Email Helene here.
I really thought Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) would be
doing to do a lot better than it has, but it hasn’t. I
have $34 as my support zone and it is my view that the
Scottish vote actually will matter for this stock. You
see, if the euro rallies, then this stock will probably
rally, too. If the euro wipes out, then this stock
probably will as well. If it holds at $34, we’ll have a
small W bottom, which I would take as bullish.
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR) is trying to form
a base. The obvious first target is the gap fill around
$40 but if that base really does play out, then the
target would be closer to $46-ish. If it moves below $32,
I’d give up.
I am not a fan of Amazon (AMZN) but it hasn’t
broken the uptrend line yet. As long as it stays above
the line, the uptrend -- if you can call it that -- is
intact. I can tell you that a break below $320 and the
longer-term downside measured target is around $270, but
I suspect that will be months out in time -- if or when
As an aside, here is yet another example of a stock that
has done nothing but go down since early September and
this week’s rally is a dud so far.
There seemed to be no solid reason for it to have rallied as much as it did, but it refuses to back off.
But I believe we should be watching the five-year yield closely.
Want more than one service? Sign up to one of our packaged services and take advantage of amazing savings!
After the Bell
Before the Bell
TheStreet Top 10 Stories
Winners & Losers