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Top Stocks With Helene Meisler

Market Sags After Yen's Deep Dive

By Helene Meisler | 02/10/16 - 06:32 PM EST
Stocks in Focus: JNK, SLV, JPM, FBT, AAPL, BABA

The Market

I figured the market would get stopped at 1875 resistance the first time up there, but I did not expect it to collapse back to unchanged on the day. But apparently the move in the yen has captivated market players and made folks want to reduce their exposure even more.

The chart of the U.S. dollar vs. the yen has collapsed of late, but the move down on Wednesday was simply breathtaking as it plunged from 115 to nearly 113. I can calculate a measured target around 113 based on that head-and-shoulders top, but I can also calculate another one near 111 if I take the high at 125 last July into account.

So now we've fretted over China. We've fretted over oil. We've fretted over the German DAX. And now we're about to fret over the Japanese yen, which I suppose means we'll have plenty of anxiety not only overnight but more importantly as we head into the weekend as the U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day while the rest of the world is open.

It is time again to pay attention to the chart of Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK). This chart needs to start holding, and it clearly needs not to break down. If it does break down and if the S&P really cracks under this 1850 area, then at least we'd get some panic in the market.

In the meantime, breadth stayed positive despite the late-day selloff. And that continues to keep the indicators steady. I still think we're going to make a low for a trading rally this week, but so far things are not cooperating. And if I am wrong, then this is the chart you will see passed around everywhere we turn.

New Ideas

I was asked to follow up on the chart of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) from a few weeks ago. It hit its first target and while it is difficult to find another measured target, the next resistance does not show up until close to $15.

I was also asked about the chart of JPMorgan (JPM) because I have given downside targets on both Citibank (C, $37) and Bank of America (BAC, 12) but not on JPM. It has not broken the way the others have and, should it start to break, the downside target is near $50, so you do not want to see it break down from here.

Today's Indicator

The Volume Indicator is back to an oversold condition again (41%).


Helene welcomes your questions about Top Stocks and her charting strategy and techniques. Please send an email directly to Helene with your questions. However, please remember that Top Stocks is not intended to provide personalized investment advice. Email Helene here.

First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index Fund (FBT) is an ETF to be long biotechnology stocks and there is no sign of a bottom. The best news I can offer, though, is that the top has a measured target in the $75 to $80 area and that is where it has halted for now. My rule is that when we hit the target, we would cover a short, but as for going long, I think you can only do that if you use a stop at the recent low and only with the thought in mind that it's a short-term trade, since there is no base to speak of.

Recall that we had a support line on Apple (AAPL) at $107 that, if broken, was bearish with a target near $92. Here is the perfect example of why you would cover a short at the target, but you don't necessarily have to go long. I would like to see a base in AAPL and there is none. If you wanted to get long, then the stop is under that small uptrend line (currently about $93). If you want to get short, then the stop is over $97.50. Otherwise, I see this as a stock in the middle of nowhere right now.

Alibaba (BABA) has a measured target around $65 from that double top, so it has gone beyond that. There is support from the September low, but if I look at this chart I see no base to speak of and decent resistance in the $65 to $67 area. Therefore, I would look to sell the stock at resistance.

Regards, Helene Meisler

I'm Getting All Sentimental
Stocks in Focus: FB, ROK, YHOO, HAIN

Ratio of bulls to bears is about as low as it gets.

02/09/16 - 06:46 PM EST
Seeing a Big Shift in Sentiment
Stocks in Focus: GDX, HD, UNP, EXC, ANTM, SFM, C, WWAV

Why can't these late-day reversals finish up and be done with it?

02/08/16 - 06:32 PM EST

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