Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Analyzing the Unexpected

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The only thing worse than being wrong is not knowing why you were wrong, Jim Cramer told "Mad Money" viewers Wednesday as he looked into why the horrible quarter projected by FedEx (FDX) did not send the markets lower, as he expected.

Cramer said that no company touches as many businesses and consumers as FedEx, so when the company fell short on its numbers, he expected the markets to be obliterated. As Cramer's said many times, the transports can either confirm or disprove a broader rally, since just about all of our economic output must then be shipped to businesses and consumers.

So what went wrong? Why didn't the markets react as expected? Cramer identified four things he missed.

First, Cramer said that shares of FedEx only fell 2% on the news, even though this was the company's first bad quarter in three years. He said investors were clearly thinking that if the European Central Bank has positive things to say about the debacle in Europe later this week, FedEx will be the first company to benefit from a pickup in economic activity.

Second, Cramer said the FedEx news really wasn't that much of a shocker, especially since rival UPS (UPS) had pretty much the same sentiment when it last reported. The FedEx news, it turns out, really wasn't news at all.

Third, Cramer noted that the transports, while important, aren't the only market indicator he follows. The iPath Dow Jones Copper ETF (JJC), a barometer for economic activity, and the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE), a gauge of Europe, were both in the green all day.

Finally, Cramer said there are simply enough positive things happening here at home, such as strong housing and auto sales, that perhaps the bad news out of FedEx just didn't matter as much as expected. The FedEx news is, after all, looking in the rear-view mirror, while all of the positives we're seeing are harbingers of the future.

So the next time you make a prediction about the markets and it doesn't some true, make sure you analyze why or it'll surely happen to you again.

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