Cisco's Earnings; Or, the Missing Penny Crushed Your Fund

 

Related Stories
Cisco Shares Drop as Growth Numbers Disappoint
The Daily Interview: Transamerica's Jeff Van Harte Talks Cisco
Cisco Slumps in After-Hours After Earnings Miss

Cisco Systems(CSCO) missing an earnings target is the equivalent of Baryshnikov falling down a flight of stairs.

But that's just what happened Tuesday night, and it's going to smack you in the wallet whether you own tech stocks or just a plain old growth fund.

Obviously, the networking giant is a tech bellwether. Late Tuesday, the previously bulletproof San Jose, Calif.-based behemoth reported second-quarter earnings that didn't meet analysts' expectations. The firm's inability to escape the current economic and tech spending slowdown's erosive effects will be interpreted as a bad sign for the broad tech sector.

The Cisco File
Operations
Business: Network equipment and software maker
2000 Revenue: $18.9 billion
2000 Earnings Per Share: 52 cents
2001 Estimated Earnings Growth: 49%
Stock Snapshot
52-Week Range: $31.94 - 82
Percentage Change from Jan. 1: -9.6%
Market Cap: $248.8 billion
Forward Price-to-Earnings Multiple: 42.1
Shares Outstanding: 7.2 billion
Large-Cap Growth Funds Owning Shares: 314/390
Sources: Baseline/Thomson Financial, BulldogResearch.com and Morningstar.

The news affects more than just those steely types holding Cisco -- which was down nearly 60% from its 52-week high before the announcement -- because it just might be the most widely held tech stock among big-cap growth funds.

The stock is in a whopping 81% of these funds, which are far and away the largest stock fund category and a core holding in many investors' portfolios. With more than 40% of their money pegged to the tech sector, these funds will no doubt be affected by the market's reaction to Cisco's results and confidence going forward. Given the size of funds' stake in Cisco, they'll play more than a small role in shaping that reaction.

It's easy to see why professional and amateur investors alike were smitten with Cisco. Over the past five years the company's growth-through-acquisition strategy has helped it keep growing at a fast clip, despite its more than $240 billion market capitalization. Over the past five years, the stock has averaged a 46.9% annual gain, compared with 18% for the S&P 500, according to Morningstar. That's the kind of stock that can help a growth fund manager beat his peers and the index -- which can add up to a fat bonus.

The Cisco Skid
The stock has trounced the market over the long haul, but had a disastrous run recently
Source: Morningstar. Performance figures through Feb. 5.

Despite the stock's 44.8% tumble over the last 12 months, it seems most growth managers are still hanging on to their Cisco shares. Even after three consecutive down quarters, the percentage of growth funds owning the "must own" growth stock dipped from about 85% at the start of last year to 81% at the start of this year, according to Morningstar.

Growth Centered
Despite Cisco's blue period, more than 80% of big-cap growth funds still own shares.
Source: Morningstar. Holdings as of most recent portfolio reports.

Fund managers' distaste can weigh down a stock, just as easily as their buying can boost it. As noted in an earlier column, the percentage of growth funds owning Microsoft and Lucent Technologies dropped sharply last year. The stocks fell 63% and 80%, respectively, in 2000. While disappointed fund managers aren't solely responsible for these stocks' big losses last year, their sell orders certainly didn't help.

The three funds that own the most shares of Cisco are the (VFINX)Vanguard 500 Index fund, the (FMAGX)Fidelity Magellan fund and the (JAVLX)Janus Twenty fund. Here's a look at the 10 funds with the highest percentage of their assets invest in Cisco's shares, according to their most recent portfolio reports.

Cisco Believers
These funds have the biggest percentage of their assets stuffed into Cisco
Fund % Assets in CSCO YTD Return
(IINTX)Investec internet.com Index 14.1% 4.2%
(RYIIX)Rydex Internet 12.7 10.3
(SWTFX)Schwab Technology Focus 10.3 11.1
(PTSGX)Pitcairn Select Growth 10.2 3.4
(MEGBX)MFS Emerging Growth 9.8 7.7
(PASGX)Phoenix-Engemann Focus Growth 9.4 0.9
(CAPVX)Capital Value 9.2 4.1
(HTEAX)Heritage Technology 9.1 5.7
(ROPPX)Reynolds Opportunity 8.6 2.9
(ETTIX)E*Trade Technology Index 8.5 9.9
S&P 500 2.2 2.6
Source: Morningstar. Holdings as of most recent portfolio reports and returns through Feb. 5.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Fund Junkie runs every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, as well as occasional dispatches. Ian McDonald writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He invites you to send your feedback to imcdonald@thestreet.com, but he cannot give specific financial advice. Editorial Assistant Dan Bernstein contributed to this article.

TheStreet Premium Services    For Personal Service: 877-471-2967

Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS:
Trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — enjoy access to his Charitable Trust portfolio and be sent trade alerts BEFORE he makes a move. Learn More
New: ETF Profits
ETF Profits:
Get money-making ideas from the hottest investment vehicle on the planet. Our experts show you how to play various ETF sectors to help pump-up your portfolio. Learn More
OptionsProfits
OptionsProfits:
Get 50+ trade ideas a week from the industry's top options experts. Plus — exclusive commentary on market trends and essential trading tools. Learn More
Doug Kass
Real Money:
Our team of professional Wall Street Pros — including Jim Cramer, Doug Kass, and Nicholas Vardy — delivers intelligent analysis, timely trade ideas, and colorful commentary. Learn More
Stocks Under $10
Stocks Under $10:
Break into the market with small- and mid-cap stocks... all $10 or less! David Peltier tells you exactly which low-priced stocks he's buying and selling. Learn More
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
12,801.23 1,342.64 2,903.88 19.69
Oil *
117.67
DOWN
89.23
DOWN
9.31
DOWN
23.35
DOWN
0.78
10 Yr
1.97%
SPDR Gold
167.14
-0.69%
-0.69%
-0.80%
-3.81%
Data delayed 20 minutes

Top Stories and Tools

Brokerage Partners

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy.
Podcasts

Connect with TheStreet