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Bulls Unbowed in Poll

The bullish outlook persists in Real Money Barometer market survey.

Of the 898 people who took the poll, 408, or 45%, see the market moving higher this week. Twenty-eight percent, or 253, were bearish, with neutral coming in at 26%, or 235 votes. Today's results mark the seventh straight week of bullishness.

In the sectors, precious metals was picked as most likely to rise, with homebuilders seen as most likely to decline.

According to a national survey of mall-based stores, retail sales on Black Friday rose 6% from a year ago to $8.96 billion. The world's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart (WMT - Get Report), said over the weekend that its same-store sales in November are set to slip 0.1%. Wal-Mart shares were down over a dollar, which was adding to the weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Recently, the Dow was down 139 points to 12,141, the Nasdaq Composite was off 47 points to 2413 and the S&P 500 was lower by 16 points, to 1385.

Today's declines are a continuation of the pullback that ended last week, when rising oil prices and a big decline in the value of the dollar weighed on the major indices.

On Friday, the Dow fell 46.78 points, or 0.38%, to 12,280.17, pressured by a selloff in Home Depot (HD - Get Report).

During the same session, the S&P 500 dropped 5.14 points, or 0.37%, to 1400.95, and the Nasdaq was lower by 5.72 points, or 0.23%, to 2460.26. For the week, which was only three and a half sessions because of the Thanksgiving holiday, the Dow fell 62 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 was little changed, and the Nasdaq rose 14 points, or 0.6%.

The dollar continued its decline against the euro and the yen on Monday. As for Treasuries, the benchmark 10-year note was up 2/32 and the 30-year bond was up 3/32. Crude oil futures were up 44 cents to $59.68 a barrel.

Below are the complete poll results.

Date Bullish Bearish Neutral Week Ending
S&P % Change
Bearish Sector
Nov. 27 408 (45%) 253 (28%) 235 (26%) Precious Metals Homebuilding
Nov. 20 1194 (56%) 351 (17%) 570 (27%) - 0.02% Multiline Retail Integrated Oil
Nov. 13 563 (46%) 334 (27%) 328 (27%) + 1.5 Precious Metals Pharmaceuticals
Nov. 6 592 (37%) 508 (32%) 504 (31%) + 1.2% Precious Metals Homebuilding

Sector Total Votes Percentage
Aerospace and Defense 16 2%
Airlines 19 2%
Automobiles 10 1%
Beverages and Food Products 9 1%
Biotechnology 29 3%
Commercial Banks 20 2%
Computers and Peripherals 54 6%
Consumer Nondurables 33 4%
Energy Equipment & Services 40 4%
HMOs and Hospitals 11 1%
Homebuilding 33 4%
Insurance 11 1%
Integrated Oil 51 6%
Internet, Software Services 43 5%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 34 4%
Media 8 1%
Multiline Retail 106 12%
Pharmaceuticals 17 2%
Precious Metals 209 23%
Semis, Semi Equipment 50 1%
Telecom Equipment 25 3%
Tobacco and Alcohol 24 3%
Utilities 26 3%
Wireless Communications 17 2%

Sector Total Votes Percentage
Aerospace and Defense 18 2%
Airlines 43 5%
Automobiles 87 10%
Beverages and Food Products 22 2%
Biotechnology 13 1%
Commercial Banks 27 3%
Computers and Peripherals 17 2%
Consumer Nondurables 27 3%
Energy Equipment & Services 31 3%
HMOs and Hospitals 30 3%
Homebuilding 162 18%
Insurance 13 1%
Integrated Oil 88 9%
Internet, Software Services 21 2%
Investment Bankers and Brokers 19 2%
Media 14 2%
Multiline Retail 65 7%
Pharmaceuticals 68 8%
Precious Metals 40 4%
Semis, Semi Equipment 40 4%
Telecom Equipment 7 1%
Tobacco and Alcohol 12 1%
Utilities 15 2%
Wireless Communications 15 2%

David Morrow is editor-in-chief of In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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