Who the heck took away a bullish view from
Cisco's (CSCO Quote - Cramer on CSCO - Stock Picks) John Chambers yesterday? Who in his right mind actually thought he said things were stabilizing or getting better? Who thought it was right that the stock rallied 10% yesterday?
Let's get what John Chambers said straight. In November, business was still smoking. He was still worried about not having enough parts to meet demand! In December, things started to decline, and decline faster than Chambers can ever recall. But he didn't panic. He waited to see whether there was pickup before he sounded alarm. On the 10th of January, he told people at the
Morgan Stanley conference that business was challenging. At the end of January, with no pickup, he told
CNBC's Ron Insana at Davos, Switzerland, that things had gotten
very challenging. In February things did not pick up. In some markets they downticked. Things are now so bad that he doesn't expect a pickup any time soon. In fact, he thinks that it won't be a quick turn.
How the heck did that litany get interpreted as bullish? How did anyone take away any confidence in the future from that? Yet, that's what the reports are saying. And that's why I thought it was still one more good chance to lighten up on Cisco and other stocks and the mutual funds that own them.
Yesterday I got an email from one of the momentum managers. He told me he is beginning to hear of a pickup in networking orders. I said to myself, "You know what? Maybe when you are down 50%, you simply lose your faculties of perception." It is also possible that one or two customers did actually get some orders. There are orders, you know. But that certainly wasn't how Chambers described things.
Hey, maybe Chambers is dead wrong. Maybe he knows nothing. But I don't think so. Oh, one other thing: Chambers had the decency to apologize for his and his stock's performance. Class act. Even in this Godforsaken tech tape.
Random musings: AOL chat tonight with me at 5 p.m.. Be there! And I'll be on "Squawk" tomorrow!!
Jim Cramer
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