Top 10 Turnaround Candidates for 2002, Part 3
Editor's Note: Arne Alsin's column runs exclusively on RealMoney.com; this is a special free look at his column. For a free trial subscription to RealMoney.com,
Are you listening to the markets? They're speaking loud and clear right now.
All eyes should be on the fixed-income market -- specifically the yield curve, the spread between short-term interest rates and long-term rates. The curve is steep (and getting steeper), a solid signal that a more robust economy is forthcoming.
The message of the stock market mirrors the message of the bond market. The recent rally in equities suggests that we've seen the nadir of the economic cycle.
The low in stocks is almost always in the middle of a recession -- never at the end or even in the vicinity of an end of a recession. (Once, in 1976, the stock market low was at the beginning of the recession.) The National Bureau of Economic Research announced Monday that the current recession started in March. (Note that these dates are always subject to change, sometimes a year after the fact.) Assuming the recession lasts a longish 12 months, the halfway point would be, interestingly, September 2001.In this column, my third installment of the Top 10 Turnarounds for 2002, my picks are two economically sensitive stocks. The market is signaling that an economic rebound will occur in 2002, and I'm listening. Both of these companies are leveraged to the economy.
York InternationalI first
|York: A Pretty Safe Play
This stock should head back to historical levels.
TextronI've highlighted 31 stocks in the past 12 months for readers, and they're up an average of 26%. However, the picks are far from perfect. Arguably, my worst recommendation was Textron (TXT), with a $5.5 billion market cap and $11.5 billion in sales. That stock was lately down 33% since
|A Turnaround for Textron
This stock looks like quite a bargain now.
A Note on Dillard'sI made a mistake in
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV