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Greenberg: The Ad Campaign Twitter Should Run

02/07/14 - 10:29 AM EST

After this week's wildly disappointing user-growth stats for Twitter, it appears the company hasn't figured out or recognized its most obvious challenge: Convincing people they never have to tweet.I first raised this issue in a piece here in my blog last October, and again last night in a piece on LinkedIn headlined, "What Ails Twitter." In the LinkedIn piece, I make it very clear: The one ad campaign Twitter should run should be: "You never have to Tweet. Not once. Not never." I'm convinced most people who have not yet joined Twitter, after all the hoopla, are either intimidated by it (believe it or not: seems too techie, and a lot of people are technophobes) or wired in a way that they couldn't care less about access to the immediacy of information. These are serious, but not necessarily insurmountable, hurdles. When I mentioned Twitter to people who aren't on it, the reaction often is along the lines of two things: "I don't want to tweet" or "I have no interest." Reality: Unlike those of us who live and even thrive in a real-time world, there are a lot (and I do mean lot) of people who don't....

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Greenberg: Will Coke Be the Second Coming of Green Mountain?

02/06/14 - 11:10 AM EST

This is a follow-up to my earlier piece on Green Mountain GMCR: Big discussion this morning on CNBC about whether a Keurig machine that dispenses soda is a game changer.Well, we already know how that will likely play out: Just look at Sodastream (SODA), which so far has cornered that market. As the first mover, it had a burst of growth, took households by storm and has since seen its growth slide. Notably, last quarter flavor growth virtually stalled, as soda sales in general have been declining -- a big issue for the likes of Coke (KO), which is scrambling to jump-start growth.As Coke CEO Muhtar Kent said in announcing the Green Mountain deal, Coke is looking for "creative partnerships" and Green Mountain certainly falls into that category.

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Greenberg: Coke's Green Mountain Stake Not a Day Too Soon

02/06/14 - 07:28 AM EST

News that Coca-Cola is taking a $1.25 billion, 10% stake in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters came in the nick of time. While details remains sketchy, almost as if the deal was signed so it could be announced as a cover for earnings, this much is clear: Had this deal not been announced, rather than fly after the close, Green Mountain's stock would've likely been pummeled. Its core business is in sharp decline. Sales growth for the quarter was a mere 4%, down from 10% the quarter before and nearly 16% a year earlier. Every key metric is just as bad: K-cup sales growth skidded to 8% from 21% a year earlier; brewer sales growth was a negative 1% versus a positive 14%. And that's after last year's stock-boosting announcement that it had extended a relationship with Starbucks. But, wait, there's more: Accounts receivable were up 21%, or more than 5-times sales -- almost always a red flag. Free cash flow tumbled 42%. Had it not been for lower coffee costs, which have since evaporated, margins would've looked weak, too....

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Greenberg: Is the Market Mispricing (and Overvaluing) Yelp, Pandora, Twitter and More?

02/05/14 - 09:26 AM EST

Say what you will about Amazon.com the stock, but you can't take this away from the online retailer: At least it tells you, right up front -- in the third paragraph of its earnings releases -- what its true share count is. From its most recent earnings report, Amazon says: 'Common shares outstanding plus shares underlying stock-based awards totaled 475 million on September 30, 2013, compared with 469 million one year ago.' The key phrase is 'plus shares underlying stock-based awards.' Spelling it out, like Amazon does, gives analysts and investors an easy way to calculate the company's true market value and (if the company is making money) fully diluted earnings (or loss) per share. The difference between diluted and the 'basic' share count, as it's called, is often not that great. Until, that is, you start looking at some of the newer tech companies, like Yelp, Pandora, Twitter, Zillow and LinkedIn. The difference is beyond startling.

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Greenberg: Responding to ADT's Response

02/03/14 - 08:46 AM EST

Last week I wrote a piece headlined, "Why ADT is Appalling." What's more appalling is the company's response, which was inserted at the end of the story after it was published -- almost immediately after I heard from the company.Here's the question I asked, via email:"I'm working on a piece about how ADT's stock has fallen in the wake of its earnings miss -- and its comments that it has "implemented actions" to "regain subscriber traction.""But this is the same company spent money buying back billions of dollars in stock at prices well above its current price in a share repurchase program that was instituted after Corvex disclosed a 5% stake."Corvex then went on the board -- and then got bought out at a high price just before this bad news hit."The obvious question: Why was Corvex given special treatment, and as a board member what did they know prior to selling?"

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Greenberg: Why ADT Is Appalling

01/30/14 - 04:27 PM EST

(This story has been updated from 1:09 PM EST with ADT's response to my media inquiry) Earnings disappointments come a dime-a-dozen, but ADT's ADT is a standout. The company said its customer growth in its fiscal first quarter, ended Dec. 27, didn't meet its expectations and that it has "implemented actions, including improvements in our dealer channel and lead generation process, to regain subscriber traction in the future."Here's the problem: Over the past year, rather than investing more cash in its business than it otherwise might have, ADT has spent billions buying back shares at prices well above where the stock now trades -- with the distortion even greater in the wake of today's earnings miss.That highlights a problem with buybacks, in general: They're often designed to give a short-term pop in the stock to assuage antsy investors. They're also often the tool of first resort when activists land on a company's doorstep, which was the case with ADT. And, as is the case with ADT, the result can often be short-term gain for long-term pain.

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Greenberg: Why Neustar Is Falling

01/30/14 - 08:56 AM EST

The post-close plunge in Neustar's shares is the result of a bidding process gone awry. As I pointed out in my October piece headlined, 'Why Neustar Could Fall,' the company is in the process of a bidding battle for the database that makes it possible for you take your phone number with you if you move or change carriers. For the first time since Neustar started managing the database in 1997, the portability contract, as it's called, is up for grabs. Originally, a decision was expected last September. It was then, without explanation, pushed off until around Jan. 20. Then, as I mentioned in a piece last week, rival in the bidding process, Telcordia Telecommunications, cried foul....

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Greenberg: Wall Street Defends Stericycle

01/29/14 - 11:58 AM EST

No surprise department: In the wake of yesterday's piece here wondering whether the Feds have launched a criminal investigation of Stericycle SRCL, analysts were out in lockstep defending the company. My story revolved around a belching incinerator in Utah, which handles all medical waste from the West Coast. Here is a smattering of comments: CSFB "Materiality Is Minimal. We estimate that less than 10% of SRCL volumes are incinerated and this is only one out of eight incinerators, so volume is immaterial. We would also note that part of the volumes that go to incinerators do so in order to keep the facility at 100% capacity. SRCL has the option of redirecting some waste to autoclaving and other disposal alternatives if need be.....

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Greenberg: Have Feds Launched Criminal Probe of Stericycle?

01/28/14 - 10:42 AM EST

Sometimes the best clues to what is really going on in a company can be found in local news media in a company's hometown. Or in towns they operate in.The latter is the case with Stericycle (SRCL), the medical waste disposal company.Of particular note: Controversy surrounding its waste disposal incinerator in the community of North Salt Lake, Utah, which is the only medical waste incinerator between the Pacific Ocean and Utah and one of a dozen or so in the country.Based on many local media stories, including this one in the Deseret News, Stericycle's Utah incinerator seems to have a problem: According to Utah press, it repeatedly belches toxic fumes, which has not gone over well with the housing subdivision that borders the plant.

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Greenberg: Wasn't Apple Supposed to Stop Lowballing?

01/27/14 - 05:13 PM EST

One of the oldest 'not so secret' worst-kept secrets was that Apple always lowballed guidance so it could blow through expectations. But that was supposed to have changed in January. As I wrote at the time, CFO Peter Oppenheimer said at the time: 'In recent years, our guidance reflected a conservative point estimate or results every quarter that we had reasonable confidence in achieving. Going forward, we plan to provide a range of guidance that reflects our belief of what we are likely to achieve. While we cannot forecast with complete accuracy, we believe we are likely to report within the range of guidance we provide.' Why point that out now? Because with Apple's punk guidance, people are again suggesting Apple is up to its old tricks.

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Herb Greenberg is the editor of Herb Greenberg's Reality Check, a subscription newsletter designed to help investors better manage risk.

Greenberg has been a financial journalist for more than 30 years, working most recently as a senior stocks commentator on CNBC's business day programming and on CNBC.com. He was also co-president of Greenberg Meritz Research & Analytics. He is a former weekend investor columnist for The Wall Street Journal and a former senior columnist for MarketWatch.

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Prior to joining MarketWatch, Greenberg was senior columnist forTheStreet. He previously spent 10 years as the "Business Insider" columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle and nearly seven years asFortune magazine's monthly "Against the Grain" columnist. Before that, he was the New York financial correspondent for the Chicago Tribune and a financial reporter in its Chicago newsroom. Greenberg has held various positions at other media outlets including Crain's Chicago Business and the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

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