RealMoney Silver - The Long Case for CSGS

The Long Case for CSGS
By Bill Trent
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/7/2007 11:17 AM EST

CSG Systems (CSGS) is a leading provider of customer care and billing services for cable operators, including Comcast (CMCSA) , EchoStar (DISH) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) . Since July, when the company announced a shortfall in cash flow from operations, the shares are down more than a third. The current price may be a good opportunity for investors to buy a stable cash-flow generator.

The cash-flow shortfall in the second quarter was caused by "unexpected changes in certain operating assets and liabilities at quarter end" as was largely made up in the third quarter. But don't get me wrong -- there are plenty of good reasons to explain the recent share price decline.

Let's start with customers. The relationship with Comcast has been touchy at times, stemming from lawsuits related to Comcast's 2002 acquisition of AT&T Broadband (AT&T's (T) cable assets). That relationship seems stable now, but things could always get dicey again.

Then there is all the talk about EchoStar being taken over. A merger with a company like AT&T that does not use CSG's services could mean CSG loses its No. 2 client.

Next, even without any mergers and acquisitions activity going on, CSG stands to lose when its clients have fewer bills to send out. Increased competition from telephone companies like AT&T and Verizon (VZ) , along with trouble related to the housing market, have led both EchoStar and Comcast to cut customer growth estimates recently.

So there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about CSG's prospects in the near term. Now we have to figure out whether today's one-third-off sale fully reflects those potential concerns. I believe it does.

The Positive Side

If there is one thing to like about CSG Systems, it's that the earnings are predictable. Consider the last 12 quarters, which I charted below.

Net Income, CSG Systems

Source: Zacks Research Wizard

The knock against predictability, of course, is that the earnings are going nowhere. They have been stuck in neutral at $14 million to $16 million per quarter for much of the last three years. On the other hand, the company generates tons of cash -- $105 million worth of free cash flow (cash from operations less capital expenditures) over the last 12 months.

It uses most of that cash flow to buy back stock. In the third quarter of 2007, there were 17.5% fewer shares than there were in the same quarter last year. As a result, the earnings per share are far from stagnant. In fact, the last 12 months of EPS were 16.1% higher than the preceding 12 months.

Now that the share price has come down, the buybacks are having a bigger impact than ever. At the current pace, the company could take itself private within six years.

Free Cash Flow Yield

With $95 million in free cash flow and a current enterprise value of $638 million, CSG is sporting a free cash flow yield of more than 16%. Even if the $65 million it spent on acquisitions this year is deducted, the free cash flow yield would still be a healthy 6.2%, offering a solid risk premium over Treasuries.

With that kind of risk premium, investors look to be well compensated for the risks outlined above.