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My crystal ball on the markets is cloudy right now, and when that happens, I try not to do too much and look for spread plays and special situations.
I recommend the PowerShares family of commodity ETFs as a better way to get commodity exposure without having to trade futures.
Someone asked for book recommendations on quantitative modeling and futures trading during our webinar last week, and I'll continue to refer to good books from time to time and work to curate a good list.