The massive rally in Treasuries that has occurred over the past five months mirrors the six-month rally in the second half of 2008. Both were flight to safety rallies.
Analysis of pending home sales data from the National Association of Realtors leads to a projection for a low number of existing-home sales for June.
If there is little change in employment levels this summer, stocks may go nowhere. If there is any negative news about employment, the market is especially sensitive and could react badly.
Looking at the employment data, there are some worrisome details. Specifically, some early signs indicate that the employment trends of the past year may be weakening.
Of the 24 countries examined, only Malaysia, with a 4.8% gain, is up year to date.
While the amount of freight has not gotten back to 2008 levels for April, the levels of 2010 continue to move further away from depressed 2009 levels, reflecting an improving economy.
The data is an important indicator to measure the strength of an economic recovery.
Greenspan testified before the FCIC today but offered no new perspective on the financial crisis.
Data indicates bottom of the recession in employment may have occurred in December.
This is the third contrarian trading portfolio we've done here at TheStreet and the third time's a charm.