Microsoft Bulls Still Play Waiting Game

"If they say this is the bottom here, the stock will start to react positively," Adams said.

But Ursillo noted that investors already are expecting a rebound. The magnitude of the rebound, which won't be apparent until Microsoft reports June-quarter results, is less certain and could affect the stock more, he said.

One thing is for certain: Analysts will ask about Microsoft's hefty cash stash during the conference call. But again, it's doubtful that Microsoft will give any concrete answers until its analyst day this summer. Among the options Microsoft is believed to be mulling over: a higher regular or special one-time dividend, a bigger stock-buyback program, or a combination of the three.

Already there's a sizable gap between what investors think Microsoft should do and what the conservative company is likely to do. "I know what they should do: They ought to pay the whole thing out." Adams quipped. "It's such a cash cow."

But a 2% dividend yield combined with stock repurchases is the more realistic expectation, and even that may be more than Microsoft is willing to share. Currently, Microsoft is paying 16 cents a share, representing only a 0.6% yield.

Goldman Sachs software analyst Rick Sherlund has suggested that Microsoft would pay a massive one-time dividend of $10 billion to $20 billion. But other analysts say that's unlikely. (Sherlund has an outperform rating on Microsoft; the firm has done banking for the software maker.)

Smith Barney Citigroup analyst Tom Berquist noted that such a one-time dividend would amount to a big bonus for Microsoft employees who hold shares, giving them an excuse to leave the company. "My feeling is Microsoft wouldn't want to reward employees to that degree," said Berquist, who has a buy rating on Microsoft. (His firm has done banking with Microsoft.)