Maven: Weather-Related Ridiculousness

08/06/06 - 10:43 AM EDT

Marek Fuchs

Starbucks (SBUX Quote), long a quality operation, reported disappointing sales and had a weather-related explanation that twisted anyone who listened into a nasty knot. In sum: The hot weather hurt sales because it helped sell more cold drinks, which take longer to make than hot ones. Lines grew too long for the cold, hurting the hot.

If I missed anything, please don't blame me. Only a Mensa member could follow this logic train. That's when CNBC went out with a camera and its tongue planted firmly in cheek to time how long it takes to make cold drinks. Lo and behold it does take longer. So could that really have hurt sales that much? (I think rising costs caused people to cut back on $9 Joes.) Well, maybe. Who knows?

But the point is, rather than parroting management's claim, they put it to some sort of test and, heaven forbid, had a little fun in the process. And they didn't try to put a one-size fits all explanation (heat helped, heat hurt) onto what is becoming increasingly clear with retail stocks: In a more challenging though not disastrous environment, if you hit the mark with your goods (Wal-Mart (WMT Quote), Children's Place (PLCE Quote), etc.) you can still do OK. Look adrift, like Gap (GPS Quote), and -- well, not a lot of customers will come, whatever the temperature.

And with that, I'll flounce off into the heat.

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A journalist with a background on Wall Street, Marek Fuchs has written the County Lines column for The New York Times for the past five years. He also contributes regular breaking news and feature stories to many of the paper's other sections, including Metro, National and Sports. Fuchs was the editor-in-chief of Fertilemind.net, a financial website twice named "Best of the Web" by Forbes Magazine. He was also a stockbroker with Shearson Lehman Brothers in Manhattan and a money manager. He is currently writing a chapter for a book coming out in early 2007 on a really embarrassing subject. He lives in a loud house with three children.
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