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12 Big Surprises for 2005

12/30/04 - 07:08 AM EST


Editor's note: Jon D. Markman writes a weekly column for CNBC on MSN Money that is republished here on TheStreet.com. He's also a regular contributor to RealMoney, TheStreet.com's subscription site. If you'd like to see all of Jon Markman's RealMoney commentary, click here for information about a free trial.


The next year stretches out in front of us like a nighttime road in an exotic country: beautiful and strange, yet not entirely unknowable.

At the end of December every year, I attempt to view this land through the prism of the past -- yet with eyes wide open for unexpected vistas. I peer into the dark for surprises and try to see around corners to find twists that might throw investors off track, as well as shortcuts that could make us a few bucks.

Much of what will happen in 2005 will be a continuation of trends in 2004. But new trends will develop as well, sometimes as bizarre, misshapen progeny of the old.

Before venturing forth, let's consider briefly how well I did with last year's predictions. They weren't too bad. My misplaced forecasts were mostly political and economic; my stock ideas were largely on target.

Misses: Osama bin Laden was not conveniently captured just before the November election; job growth did stage a comeback, but then faded; Congress did not make the 2003 tax cuts permanent; the Federal Reserve did not keep interest rates at 45-year lows all year; government corruption did not emerge as the next wave of the mutual fund scandal; and rich-content Internet advertising did not emerge as a hot tech trend.

Hits: Crude oil soared over $35 a barrel and stayed there; the price of gold did fade back to the $375-an-ounce area ($371 to be exact) before moving much higher; stocks that Standard & Poor's removed from the S&P 500 did better than the index; small oil and gas drillers were the hot sectors for momentum traders in the first three quarters of the year; the stock markets of Chile, Brazil, Peru, Mexico and Argentina surged to new highs; and Mr. P, research director of a major East Coast hedge fund who has been highly accurate on tips in the last few years, was dead-on with his prediction of a 5%-8% advance in the S&P 500, concluding with a strong fourth quarter and big swings in commodity prices.

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Jon D. Markman is publisher of StockTactics Advisor, an independent weekly investment newsletter, as well as senior strategist and portfolio manager at Pinnacle Investment Advisors. At the time of publication he held positions in the following stocks mentioned: Terra Industries. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes column critiques and comments at jon.markman@gmail.com; please write COMMENT in the subject line.

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