Big Pharma's Goal: Less Mayhem

For the big drugmakers, next year could be the stock-market equivalent of Pushme-Pullyu, the two-headed creature of Doctor Doolittle fame that tried to go in different directions at the same time and ultimately got nowhere.

Maybe a little standing in place doesn't sound too bad to long-time investors in the sector, considering the management ousters, failed clinical trials and patent losses that have become commonplace.

Even better would be to find the 2007 edition of Merck (MRK Quote), which despite mixed results on the Vioxx-litigation front turned in a gain of more than 30% this year, making it one of the best performers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

If Stephen Brozak of WBB Securities is right, the coming year should be one in which biotech companies, and to a lesser extent giant drug firms, do better than the economy in general. However, he warns that "a rising tide won't lift all boats."

With that in mind, analysts say the least-promising roster features names like Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY Quote), AstraZeneca(AZN Quote) and Pfizer(PFE Quote).

Wall Street appears to have already decided who the winners should be, judging by the number of buy recommendations compared with the combined sells and holds tabulated by Thomson Financial.

Among the biggest drug outfits, the strongest sentiment is for Genentech(DNA Quote), Amgen(AMGN Quote), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ Quote), Novartis(NVS Quote) and Wyeth(WYE Quote).

Of course, along with the good come the bad and the potentially ugly.