Weekend Linkfest
Heckuva job, Karl: The GOP "thumping" barely gave markets a pause this week. After a strong start -- helped by a bevy of private equity and M&A deals -- the markets stopped a bit to digest the extent of the political realignment. Equities floundered towards week's end.
So far, the first big loser (aside from those pols who lost their jobs) has been big Pharma and health care, which took it on the chin once it was clear the Senate was changing hands. Making the rounds through Wall Street's echo chamber is the notion that investors had "priced in" a GOP loss in the House of Representatives but not the Senate. I suspect that is an overly narrow view of the political realignment that took place. Also repeated ad nauseum: Gridlock is good. Maybe. If the situation is desirable, then perhaps gridlock can hold that in place. However, where the environment and trends are weakening, then maybe gridlock isn't an ideal political scenario -- at least if you hope to get anything accomplished. As we head into the middle of November, we can look forward to retail sales numbers, PPI and CPI (inflation), industrial production and housing starts. We also get the FOMC Minutes, and some Fed speechifying. But none of that is until Monday. It's the weekend, and you know what that means: Linkus Festivus! Editor's note: To access some of these stories, registration or a subscription may be required. Please check the individual links for the site's policy.INVESTING The papers are chock full of fingerpointing: Who deserves the credit -- or blame -- for the Democratic rout? And who wins and loses after the GOP fall? My own post-mortem is here. We also pulled together a roundup of of bloggers' takes on the elections.. Barron's Alan Abelson says the GOP got Bushwhacked. (If no Barron's, go here.) Barron's did forecast a GOP sweep. Their mea culpa was wanting. Astonishing: Just how bad was the rout? Using Senate numbers only, the Dems, with 31,591,495 votes, took 55%, versus the GOP's 45%. This is a much bigger shift than 1994 in terms of vote percentages. How did this happen? A combination of voters in the center and, surprisingly, the rich -- many of whom aren't Republican anymore. Across the pond, the FT observed US voters in resounding call for change. Bloomberg's Caroline Baum hopes that Divided Government will mean Less Economic Meddling. However, Business may face greater Congressional scrutiny. Price-Earnings Ratios on U.S. Stocks Drop, Aiding Bull Market. Very cool tool: annualized growth rate between any two days of the DJIA from 1896 to 2006. Also, GDP, CPI, wages, population, gold and more. SEC Chief, No 'Cox in Henhouse,' Defies Skeptics. Anonymizing Bad Analyst Coverage by rewriting history: Nearly twenty thousand "pervasive and non-random" changes of an unusual nature in I/B/E/S/ analyst coverage suggests that firms are losing analysts' names -- on purpose -- on bad stock calls. The research suggests that particularly embarrassing recommendations are most likely to be anonymized. Is There a Gene for Business? Five 401(k) mistakes to avoid. Bonus Pay for Wall Street Big Five Surges to Record $36 Billion.That's all from my corner of the Northeast, where Thanksgiving is but 10 days away. Do I even bother dieting beforehand, or is this a lost cause?
ECONOMY
The Wall of Worry continues to build: It's Still the Economy, Stupid. Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach says Wrong Time for Gridlock. The Short View: US payrolls: don't believe the hype. The BLS nonfarm payroll margin of error is +/- 430,000 -- per month! (via Sy Harding). The New York Post's John Crudele wants to know why U.S. TREASURY IS DOING THE FED'S WORK. There's less to the employment data than meets the eye. (If no Barrons, go here.) The global middle cries out for reassurance. A Bloomberg video twofer:Rubin Sees Risk of 'Severe Difficulty' in U.S. Economy. Former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin Says U.S. Government Will Focus on Budget.
HOUSING
Paul Kasriel asks Are We Near a Bottom in Housing? Toll Brothers sees no end to home slump; Beazer Homes reported a 44 percent decline in profit. Most realtors haven't been in the business long enough to see anything but a boom market, and the current slump is new to all but a handful of industry veterans. Foreclosures continue to accelerate nationwide. It's not all bleak: Home loan demand rises as mortgage refinancing surges. Trading in housing prices reflects pressure, not panic. For Sale, By the Owner's Ego. Why do some homes sell faster than others -- even the same models on the same block? Ego. Chief target for many critics has been the NAR's Chief Economist David Lereah, who is being cyberstalked by some unhappy home buyers: There is now a blog tracking him, (David Lereah Watch) and some mashups on YouTube (Is Florida's this century's California?). Someone even set up a MySpace page for him. His first friend? Satan.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Bernanke say Fed does not rely on money growth. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bernanke differ on Strategy, Money Supply. Fed's Moskow Says Inflation Is Greater Risk Than Slower Growth. Fed Warns Of Illicit Bond Activity as Traders Manipulated Supply.
SENTIMENT/PSYCHOLOGY
What Drives Investor Sentiment? Mark Hulbert notes that top-performing newsletters aren't bullish on U.S. stocks: An underwhelming vote of confidence. Dollar, gold move on China's diversification talk. A $5 painting found at a thrift shop may be a $9 million Jackson Pollack.
ENERGY/WAR/MEDIA
Want to see a surefire way to guarantee a windfall profit tax? Oil Industry Barely Boosted Investment in Production. See also: IEA calls for investment to avert global energy shortage. Bush signals change in Iraq policy. Iraqi official: 150,000 civilians feared dead. MarketWatch nominates Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert to be Time magazine Person(s) of the Year. The Great Media Shake-out is upon us.
TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE
I've played with this and it's way cool: Microsoft debuts Google Earth killer. Be sure to use the bird's-eye view. Experts say U.S. must act on next-generation Internet. Good riddance: Rebates on the Way to Expiring . Ultra-mobile Windows PC. Divide and Conquer: Cringely writes that the Microsoft/Novell deal is more about disruption than cooperation. Gartner: Zune not in the Christmas race with iPod.
MUSIC, BOOKS, MOVIES, TV, FUN!
Great debut albums: I mentioned the Pretenders disc last week. This week, let's include Jimi Hendrix's Are You Experienced as another of the best debuts of all time. I received Diane Ackerman's An Alchemy of Mind: The Marvel and Mystery of the Brain as a gift -- it's a fascinating (nonmarket) read. Fascinating artwork via Christophe Vorlet. I finally got around to watching Kill Bill, Volume 1: Awesome bloodshed! Great airplane viewing: first season of Entourage. Colbert Calls it Quits: Mr. Colbert gets mad over the recent election results and says good bye america. Sculptures -- made of toothpicks! Norway keeps the streak alive, ranked best place to live. (U.S.? No. 8.) An Onion twofer: Politicians Sweep Midterm Elections and Rumsfeld: 'My Half-Assed Job Here Is Done.' See also Andy Borowitz: Democrats, Republicans Agree to Take Two Years Off; the Two Parties Find Common Ground in Decision Not to Work. "Office Space" recut into a slasher/thriller trailer. An unintentionally funny video clip!
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