Believe in the Tech Cycle and Hold On

This column was originally published on RealMoney on July 22 at 11:38 a.m. EDT.

Attention killer product developers: Can you please give us a one-pound product the size of a piece of paper that can run for 10 hours, access email, send movies and songs, make our calls and do everything else so I can throw away these other three devices and stop lugging everything, including spare batteries and power cords? Can you give me that so I can be online constantly, watch television and movies and have a terrific time to boot?

This is where we are going. It's why I believe that Broadcom(BRCM Quote), SanDisk(SNDK Quote), Marvell(MRVL Quote) and Seagate(STX Quote) are buys -- they'd all play a role.

It's why Intel(INTC Quote) and Dell(DELL Quote) work, 'cause it will be Intel chips and Dell PCs.

It's why that darned Sociedad Quimica(SQM Quote) keeps going up, because of the huge lithium shortage. Can you imagine being the only large supplier of lithium? What a business! That's the key to the long-term battery life.

I don't believe that we even know yet how exciting this product cycle is. Sure, we get insights when we fool around with the V Cast phones from Motorola(MOT Quote). We will get some sense when we see, next Tuesday, the Research In Motion(RIMM Quote) killer from Motorola. And we know that Yahoo!(YHOO Quote) and Google(GOOG Quote) will play big roles.

But the stocks are still selling every day as if this must come to an end, that this rally in tech is ephemeral because nobody really believes in any of this stuff.

To me, it feels just like Corning(GLW Quote) at $2 a few years ago. That company made $50,000 LCD screens. Who will pay for that?

Now they cost a tenth of that and the answer is everybody.

You need to be thinking about this revolution. You need to be thinking about your ownership of it. You can't be shaken out by a Nokia(NOK Quote) call or by a Google caution comment. You can't be thinking, "OK, how about Applied Materials(AMAT Quote), because that always used to work." You can't sneer at these stocks because they don't go up every day; they shouldn't.

But these product cycles are myriad and investible from the hardware infrastructure and accessory side. The sooner you stop trading them and start owning them, the better.

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