2005: A Move Higher, Until...
The market should move higher next year, but don't expect a repeat of 2003's bullish advance. The economic expansion may run out of gas in the months ahead, and the next recession could emerge in the next 24 to 48 months. In turn, this might trigger the next leg in the secular decline that began almost five years ago.
Past price action can predict the market's future with great accuracy. As it turns out, the fall rally is sitting just above levels that have triggered key reversals in the past, and despite the current euphoria, it may not be any different this time around.
Let's rewind a few years and examine the crosscurrents moving the ticker tape at that time. I believe that volatile time period holds the key to market direction next year.
The first wave of the bear market dropped the S&P 500 index to the March 2001 low at 1081. The 22% rally that followed the low had folks thinking the correction was over. In fact, the Dow came within striking distance of its bubble high by May of that year. But the move fizzled out, and the indices began a long decline back to their March lows. I still remember how the S&P 500 bounced strongly on the day it returned to this price level. That was Sept. 10, 2001, and the solid close had traders expecting a rally to start the next morning. Of course, things didn't turn out that way.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV