Bonds Scream Recession

Stock and bond investors continued to take divergent views of the economy Thursday.

Treasury bonds soared, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to an 11-month low. The sharp fall in Treasury yields, which fall as prices rise, clearly betrays an expectation that the economy will slow.

But stock prices also rose Thursday, led by a sharp rally in the homebuilders -- considered by some observers to be among the economy's most vulnerable sectors. Stock investors, therefore, seem to be betting the economy will do just fine.

And without any Fed speakers Thursday to remind bond traders that inflation is still a concern, the bond rally got a bit out of hand. Various Fed officials, including FOMC chief Ben Bernanke, will speak Friday, and the bond market is likely to come off the boil again, sending yields rising back up.

"There are a few camps in the bond market," says Jack Malvey, chief fixed-income strategist at Lehman Brothers. "We would not be bond bulls and chase this rally."

The 10-year Treasury bond rallied 15/32, speeding its yield to 4.46% -- a low not seen since January. The 30-year bond jumped 26/32 to yield 4.56%, and the two-year note jumped 4/32 to yield 4.62%.

An unexpected surge in initial jobless claims, mixed reports of November same-store sales and a surprisingly low reading of manufacturing activity in the Chicago area supported the bond bulls.

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