Online Gamblers Place Bets on Hillary
Updated from 11:13 a.m. EDT
Are you ready for President Hillary?
The markets are. The political markets.
Political insiders have long known that if you really want to know what's going on in a campaign, you can't just look at the opinion polls.You have to talk to the bookies. Get the odds. And this time around, they're telling a story. Political bookmakers report a surge in betting on Hillary Clinton to secure the Democratic nomination and to go on to win the November 2008 presidential election. Barack Obama's support has faded dramatically since early spring, they say. "The market is saying she has a lock on the nomination," says David Buik, commentator for the London-based betting exchange Cantor Spreadfair, a division of the trans-Atlantic financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald. "That's what the punters are telling us." These days political betting doesn't rely on old-fashioned odds. Instead it uses online betting exchanges which operate like a regular financial market. You buy and sell "futures" in individual candidates just as you would oil futures or shares. The contracts pay $1 if the candidate ends up winning, and zero if they lose. So prices fluctuate between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the candidates' perceived percentage chance of winning. Thanks to the U.S. government's puritanical gambling laws, most of these exchanges operate in London or Dublin, Ireland, although the University of Iowa (quirkily) has an exemption to run a small electronic market. To watch Janet Al-Saad's video take of this column, click here.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV